EDITOR'S NOTE: There are two big things happening this week. Both are likely to impact gold prices, possibly in a big way. On Thursday, the GDP report is slated for release at 8:30 am ET. Remember, we’ve seen two consecutive periods of negative growth. We’re technically in a recession. Thursday’s report may elicit a huge response in the equities as well as the precious metals markets. Also on Thursday (ending on Friday) is the big Jackson Hole Symposium where Fed Chair Jay Powell is scheduled to speak. It was during this conference a few years ago when he unveiled the Fed’s new accommodative policy; one that differed significantly from past monetary approaches which were largely more anticipatory. It may have also been at the same conference where the concept of “averaging inflation” may have been introduced. The kind of averaging that brought us into the economic “Hole” we currently find ourselves in (obviously, the Fed lost control of it, finding inflation to be more unwieldy than it initially thought). So, that’s what’s happening toward the end of the week. Although markets can be unpredictable—big moves when you don’t expect them, and smaller moves when you expect larger ones—it’s always best to be prepared. So, just brace yourself.
Gold price outlook: After four consecutive weeks of gains, the gold rally paused and prices gave way to selling pressure while facing resistance around the psychological $1,800 per ounce mark. In the week gone by, MCX gold rates corrected more than 2 per cent whereas spot gold price dipped over 3 per cent. It was majorly the strength in the dollar index, which acted as a key headwind for the precious metal. The dollar index has retreated by around 3 per cent since testing lows of 104.63 mark, leading to this corrective wave in gold prices, and pushing them towards a three-week low. The greenback picked up steam as market participants focused on the minutes of the July Fed meeting, which indicated that the policymakers remain committed to raising interest rates, until they are convinced that inflation has come down substantially.
After the US Fed tightening expectations underpinning the dollar index, focus has now shifted towards the Jackson Hole Symposium scheduled from 25th to 27th August next week that will provide further cues for gold prices. Here we list out top 5 triggers that my impact gold price in near term:
1] Jackson Hole Symposium: "At the annual conference, the highly anticipated speech from the Fed chair will provide further guidance about how high the US borrowing costs could go in the coming months and how long they will hold there in their fight against elevated price pressures," said Sugandha Sachdeva, Vice President — Commodity & Currency Research at Religare Broking.
2] Dollar index: "Focus would be on the trend of the dollar index as that will largely steer gold prices for the week. The index has a key hurdle at the 108 mark and it remains to be seen whether it can manage to sustain above the same," said Sugandha Sachdeva of Religare Broking.
3] US Q2 GDP data: "Third estimate of the US Q2 GDP data will be released next week and gold investors are advised to remain vigilant about data release as it would give more idea about the health of US economy. If the US GDP estimates come disappointing, then it may create buying interest in gold due to profit-booking trigger in US dollar," said Anuj Gupta, Vice President — Research at IIFL Securities.
4] US preliminary whole sale inventory and trade balance: "These US numbers are quite important after the Jackson Hole Symposium as weak trade balance data may put US dollar under pressure leading to rise in gold prices," said Anuj Gupta of IIFL Securities.
5] US home sales and job data: A host of other economic data releases will further add to the volatility in gold prices. Next week features the US and European manufacturing data, US Services PMI, new home sales, core durable goods orders, and core PCE price index.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint.
Originally published on Mint.