EDITOR'S NOTE: A strange turn that took place this summer in the political gaslight district, there’s been plenty of debate as to whether the country is in a recession or not. The Biden administration even changed the government’s official definition of recession, perhaps to allay Americans’ fears and convince them into thinking that everything really is okay. A recession during the midterms is not what Biden wanted, so he thought that maybe changing the definition would serve as some form of propagandistic damage control. Well, the data debunks Biden’s decorative framing of an economy unraveling. If the Bloomberg article below is right, the odds of a recession stand at a solid 100% certainty. Things are going to get worse. And Americans will find themselves divided, once again, into two camps: those who prepared and those who didn’t. Which side are you on?
(Bloomberg) -- A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.
The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.
The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden, who has repeatedly said the US will avoid a recession and that any downturn would be “very slight,” as he seeks to reassure Americans the economy is on solid footing under his administration.
But tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve pressing ahead with rate hikes are raising the risk of a contraction.
Originally published on MSN.