EDITOR NOTE: Considering the number of analysts who’ve been calling attention to the market’s schism from the real economy, it seems that the term “perma-bear” may soon be equated, and justifiably so, with the term “realist.” If that’s the case, those who are optimistic about the stock market are living in a world far disconnected from fundamental reality. The article below adds yet another potential bearish reason to view the markets: the Biden administration. We know that Biden’s policies may not be as business-friendly as, say, Trump’s. But might his policies be severe enough to trigger a 30% decline across all sectors over the next few years? That’s what fund manager David Tice believes, and the reasons behind his claim come across as rational and compelling. Though having earned a spot in the “perma-bear” (read: realist) category, his bearishness is met by equal bullishness on gold, which, as you know, is one of the few assets that can help hedge against such a severe downturn.
Long-time bear David Tice has new warning for investors.
He expects stocks to fall at least 30% in a downturn that lasts two years. One of his major reasons: Business unfriendly policies from Washington.
“We now have a Biden administration that has a Senate and a House. They’re likely to enact very much more anti-capitalist policies,” the investor told “Trading Nation” on Friday. “They have already raised the minimum wage. That’s going to hurt earnings on the cost side.”
According to Tice, easy monetary and fiscal policies that support money printing will also sting Wall Street.
“All of this is not good for financial markets,” he added.
Tice is known for running the Prudent Bear Fund before selling to Federated in 2008, just as the financial crisis was unfolding.
Now as an advisor to the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF, Tice has spent much of his career making bearish bets during bull markets. His current fund, which is also designed to profit from underperformance, has been under pressure. It’s down 32% in the last three months.
In his latest warning, Tice contends the problems are piling higher. He also cites an overvalued market and coronavirus vaccine concerns for his pessimism.
“The vaccine is not really a panacea,” he added. “We’ve seen a lot of optimism about that, but there are new strains of the virus, and there is certainly risk going forward.”
Tice acknowledges his timing hasn’t always been on the mark.
“I’ve seen bear markets approach, and people have called me a perma bear,” he said. “I’m a believer in the Austrian School of Economics that says that the magnitude of the decline is proportional to the excesses created during the prior boom. I was early in 1998, 1999 and in 2006 to 2007.”
‘When it breaks, it’s likely to break hard’
Despite his bearishness, Tice doesn’t have a timeline on when the market trouble will start.
“Markets tend to get extended,” he said. “But when it breaks, it’s likely to break hard and cause investors to suffer for a long time.”
So, Tice is still advocating gold, which up more than 25% since the March 23 stock market bottom, as a top asset for investors.
“Gold is dramatically under-owned by individuals and portfolio managers,” he noted. “Gold stocks are incredibly cheap.”
He also likes bitcoin as an investment.
“I don’t think that bitcoin can be ignored,” Tice said. “We have seen the price of bitcoin go from $10,000 to $40,000 which I think is foreshadowing potentially what might happen in gold.”
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on Tice’s remarks.
Originally posted on CNBC