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Headline Sentiment Remains At Its Lowest Since 2011

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EDITOR'S NOTE: Zero Hedge looks at the recent uptick in the University Of Michigan's Sentiment survey. The survey noted that “the headline print rose from 66.8 prelim to 67.4 final but remains well below the 71.7 October print. Current Conditions rose from 73.2 prelim to 73.6 final for November (still below October's 77.7).” And, “Expectations also rebounded modestly from 62.8 to 63.5 final, but well below the 67.9 final print from October.” However, despite the upward trend, sentiment is still at its lowest point in over a decade. Buying attitudes also fell to record lows and future expectations are at their lowest point since the 2008 financial crisis. While there is some good news, make sure you understand the whole report, which says we are still in a very bad spot. 

After plunging to decade-lows in preliminary data, analysts expected practically no bounce at all for the final November print of University Of Michigan's Sentiment survey, but in fact the data did bounce a little.

  • The headline print rose from 66.8 prelim to 67.4 final but remains well below the 71.7 October print.

  • Current Conditions rose from 73.2 prelim to 73.6 final for November (still below October's 77.7).

  • Expectations also rebounded modestly from 62.8 to 63.5 final, but well below the 67.9 final print from October.

However, despite the intramonth bounce (which was small), headline sentiment remains at its lowest since 2011...

umich consumer sentiment index

Source: Zero Hedge via Bloomberg

Buying Attitudes all dropped in November to record lows...

consumer sentiment

Source: Zero Hedge via Bloomberg

“Rather than gradually easing along with diminished shortages, complaints about falling living standards doubled in the past six months,” Curtin said.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Americans' expectations for the future path of inflation remain at their highest since 2008 fro the short-term and medium-term picked up as the month proceeded...

Source: Zero Hedge via Bloomberg

“While pandemic induced supply-line shortages were the precipitating cause, the roots of inflation have grown and spread more broadly across the economy,” Richard Curtin, director of the survey, said in a statement.

Not what Brainard wanted to see!

Originally posted on Zero Hedge.

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