EDITOR NOTE: Last week Citi issued a price target for gold of $2,500 per ounce. What’s behind this guidance? According to the analysts below, the conditions that drove gold to all-time-highs are still present and active. More stimulus, a weaker dollar, low mining production due to the pandemic, and higher inflation expectations are going to drive the dollar higher in the coming year. Considering that the Fed’s 2% average inflation target may be in place for a number of years--the Fed itself said interest rates may remain near zero until 2023--we think that Citi’s gold price target may be on the conservative side. In short, gold is likely to go even higher than that.
Gold’s 2021 prospects look bright.
Citigroup in recent weeks came out with a $2,500 price target on the yellow metal for 2021, comparing its mosaic of catalysts to that of gold’s 1970-1980 bull market.
Those catalysts are “very much in place,” GraniteShares founder and CEO Will Rhind told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” on Monday.
“The stimulus ... would be probably the most obvious one, the one that’s certainly driven gold prices for the majority of this year in 2020,” he said.
On top of that, the weaker dollar, rising inflation expectations, falling real yields and ongoing market volatility should all continue to boost prices, said Rhind, whose firm runs the GraniteShares Gold Trust (BAR).
“The conditions that drove gold to an all-time high this year are very much still in place. I think it’s just natural that once you get to an all-time high in an asset class, there’s some consolidation afterwards and that’s what we’re seeing right now in terms of the price,” he said. “But the fundamental conditions are still here and I believe that they will be here for the next 12-15 months minimum as well.”
ETF Trends’ Dave Nadig — “not a big gold bug,” by his own proclamation — flagged several more bullish catalysts.
“I’m the first one to point out that gold is a nonproducing asset. It’s a psychological commodity, meaning it’s only worth what somebody else will pay for it,” Nadig, chief investment officer and director of research at ETF Trends and ETF Database, said in the same “ETF Edge” interview.
“That being said, it’s hard to argue with thousands of years of history of folks looking to gold as a store of value in times of crisis, and I don’t know what we’re in if it’s not a time of crisis,” he said.
Beyond the macroeconomic drivers Rhind listed, there’s a push and pull at play on the more “micro” side of gold’s story, Nadig said.
“Remember, the gold mining industry is an industry like any others and it’s been hit by Covid just like every other industry all the way from the mine to distribution to manufacturing. All of that’s been constrained,” he said. “So, the supply remains very constrained and at the same time, demand has really never been higher. Investment demand, particularly ETF investment demand, for gold is at all-time highs.”
Gold’s resurgence will likely only add to that sentiment, the ETF analyst predicted.
“Whether it’s just investors realizing a 5% allocation to gold is a nice way to provide some counter-correlation in the portfolio or whether it’s folks just speculating that the price is going up over the next six months, that demand’s going to be there,” he said. “So, you’ve got these big macro drivers and at the same time, the fundamental micro-economic structure of the gold market is bullish as well.”
Gold prices moved higher on Wednesday to around $1,815.10, fueled by dollar weakness. The yellow metal is up more than 17% this year.
Originally posted on CNBC