EDITOR'S NOTE: Short of forecasting a recession, stagflation, or a major global economic slowdown, in contrast to his counterparts in Bank of America and Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon sees “volatility” in the markets ahead. Although he sees the Federal Reserves’ quantitative tightening measures as a primary driver behind the coming turbulence, he also gives the central bank credit for pulling off what appears to be a “soft landing.” Though his perspective may contrast sharply with other banks, the words in his statement also carefully imply that all of this can change on a dime depending on how multiple factors unfold. With Dimon setting aside $1 billion as a hedge against the turmoil, doesn’t it behooves any responsible investor to preserve capital to mitigate the large unknowns ahead?
In case you've gotten used to the tedium and predictability of recent years — we kid! — America's favorite silver-maned banker says more volatility is coming, Matt writes.
Why it matters: As head of the country's largest bank by assets, JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon is in a prime position to identify emerging economic developments.
Driving the news: The just bank reported lower-than-expected earnings, driven in part by losses related to the war in Ukraine. It also set aside nearly $1 billion to potentially deal with additional turmoil.
What he's saying: While acknowledging that the economy remains strong at the moment, Dimon pointed to "storm clouds on the horizon." Those include the Federal Reserve's plans to raise interest rates and shrink its bond holdings — known as quantitative tightening, or Q.T. — as well as inflation and the war in Ukraine.
- "I cannot foresee any scenario at all where you're not going to have a lot of volatility in markets going forward," Dimon said on a conference call with analysts after the results were released. "Q.T., inflation, war, commodity prices. There's almost no chance you won't have volatile markets."
- "I hope those things disappear and go away, we have a soft landing and the war is resolved," he said. "I just wouldn't bet on all of that."
Originally published on Axios.