EDITOR'S NOTE: Last week’s jobs report wasn’t a good sign. I mean it was “really good,” and that’s the problem. We added over a quarter of a million jobs in the US. That means the economy is still growing. And that, as you know, is only going to bring us more difficulty. Demand is high, and if you believe in the demand-pull or wage-spiral scenario, prices are likely to move higher. Wages remain sticky, so you’ll see wages stay put or, in some cases, rise beyond current levels. All of these will contribute to higher inflation. And that means the Fed will have to hike rates even more aggressively, possibly overshooting its target once again, taking the economy down with it. With three-quarters of negative GDP growth, there’s little doubt that we’re in a recession amid skyrocketing prices. Is it going to get worse? Are we going to face a “stagflationary” scenario, similar to the 1970s? Here’s what experts like Jamie Dimon are saying.
The September jobs report raised concerns that the Federal Reserve was making little progress in its fight against inflation.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday warned that the U.S. is headed for a recession in the next six to nine months as volatile markets coincide with disorderly financial conditions.
Speaking to CNBC’s Julianna Tatebaum at the JPM Techstars conference in London, Dimon said U.S. consumers would be in better shape this time around than the 2008 global financial crisis but the current factors contributing to a recession were still a cause for concern.
"But you can’t talk about the economy without talking about stuff in the future – and this is serious stuff," Dimon said, citing inflation, quantitative easing, and Russia’s war with Ukraine.
"These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world – I mean, Europe is already in recession, and they’re likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now," he said.
Source: Fox Business
Dimon’s comments came after the September jobs report, released last Friday, showed that businesses kept hiring at a brisk pace, unemployment fell back to a half-century low and average pay rose.
Still, the jobs report raised concerns that the Federal Reserve was making little progress in its fight against inflation. With the Fed more likely to keep raising borrowing costs rapidly, the risk of recession will also rise.
Employers did pull back slightly on hiring last month, and average wage gains slowed. But economists say neither is falling fast enough for the Fed to slow its inflation-fighting efforts.
As a result, another hefty rate hike of three-quarters of a point — a fourth consecutive one — is likely at the Fed's next meeting in November.
The Fed's rate hikes are intended to cool the economy and tame inflation. The increases have, in turn, led to higher borrowing costs across the economy, notably for homes, credit cards, and business loans.
Dimon said the Fed, in hindsight, "waited too long and did too little."
"But they’re clearly catching up. They’re clearly motivated to catch up," he said. "And, you know, from here, let’s all wish him success and keep our fingers crossed that they managed to slow down the economy enough so that whatever it is, is mild – and it is possible."
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Originally published on Fox Business.