EDITOR NOTE: What you’re about to read presents a tactical scenario. Tomorrow, when the Fed concludes its FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will do one of two things. He will either dismiss inflation, describing it as being “right on track,” or he will admit that the inflationary surge is heating up faster than the Fed had anticipated. Two possible statements, and two mainstream responses, as billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones explains. If the former, get ready to see a mainstream rotation into (whatever it perceives to be) an inflation trade; if the latter, brace yourself for a potential cratering in the market. Either way, the non-CUSIP precious metals trade would have been the right positioning for both scenarios. What’s your position, and are you prepared for tomorrow’s statement in the Federal Reserve policy meeting?
Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC on Monday he’s paying close attention to this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting in light of recent economic data showing higher consumer prices.
“If they treat these numbers — which were material events, they were very material — if they treat them with nonchalance, I think it’s just a green light to bet heavily on every inflation trade,” Jones said on “Squawk Box.”
“If they say, ‘We’re on path, things are good,’ then I would just go all in on the inflation trades. I’d probably buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold,” added Jones, who called the stock market crash in 1987 and is founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment.
On the other hand, Jones predicted that markets would be unsettled if the Fed comes out with a different tone Wednesday.
“If they course correct, if they say, ‘We’ve got incoming data, we’ve accomplished our mission or we’re on the way very rapidly to accomplishing our mission on employment,’ then you’re going to get a taper tantrum,” Jones said. “You’re going to get a sell-off in fixed income. You’re going to get a correction in stocks. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s over.”
The Fed’s two-day policy meeting is scheduled to conclude Wednesday, and Chairman Jerome Powell is set to hold a news conference after the central bank releases its statement at 2 p.m. ET.
Powell and company have maintained their highly accommodative monetary policy approach, which was instituted in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Central bankers have been steadfast despite criticism that massive bond buying and near-zero interest rates are no longer necessary because the economic recovery is well underway and inflation data is concerning.
Powell and other Fed officials say they believe rising prices are likely temporary as the economy reopens from all manner of pandemic-related disruptions, which in turn justifies their policy stance.
“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world,” said Jones, who added he feels the central bank’s inflation views put its credibility at risk.
In Monday’s “Squawk Box” interview, Jones also reiterated his favorable outlook on bitcoin, calling it a “portfolio diversifier” and a ” story of wealth.” The longtime trader added that he’s grown nervous when considering the stock market’s valuation compared with the overall economy.
“The only thing I know for certain, I want 5% in gold, 5% in bitcoin, 5% in cash, 5% in commodities. At this point in time, I don’t know what I want to do with the other 80% until I see what the Fed is going to do,” Jones said.
Originally posted on CNBC