EDITOR NOTE: FOMO combined with assumptions that the central bank won’t allow the markets to fall may catch many a retail investor in surprise...as retail investors often make misguided decisions. Allianz’ El-Erian suggests using the options market to hedge against a correction. What decent long-term investor wouldn’t take advantage of a mere “correction” to build up a position? But if you’re playing the long game, a correction is the least of your concerns. You’re looking at a major crash in the value of all dollar-denominated assets. Options won’t help you there. Only a real hedge can, and that’s silver and gold.
Mohamed El-Erian said in an op-ed with the Financial Times retail investors should consider the outlook of the options market to prepare for a stock market correction following explosive gains over the last five months.
The chief economic advisor of Allianz said Monday: "The seemingly endless rally in US stocks gives the impression that prices are endorsed and supported by the entire professional investment community."
He added: "After all, despite the vocal concerns over valuations having split away from underlying corporate and economic fundamentals, few fund managers have been willing to challenge the market by placing outright shorts."
El-Erian's comments come as short bets against US stocks have fallen to their lowest levels in the last 15 years, according to data from Goldman Sachs.
"The fear of missing out on an unceasing equity rally has increasingly been expressed through call options," he said.
In contrast to equity longs, call options gives the buyer the right to buy the underlying asset at a predetermined price on a certain date. Buying calls suggests an investor believes an asset has further room to rally.
"[A call] limits the amount at risk and gives users the ability to capture rallies. It has been supplemented by more downside 'tail protection' aimed at safeguarding portfolios from sharp drops," El-Erian said.
"The Vix volatility index has decoupled from equity indices, adding to signals that a large market correction, should one materialise, would encourage more professional selling that could overwhelm the buy-the-dip retail investor," he added.
Stocks have been very volatile in recent months. After touching coronavirus lows of 2237.40, the S&P 500 has fully erased its 2020 losses and hit a record above 3,514 points on Monday. This means the index has recovered 53% from its March lows.
A number of factors has contributed to the strength in the equity markets. Central banks have rolled out stimulus relief packages worth billions of dollars to help the economy ride out the pandemic. This has caused rates to fall, making equities an attractive place to invest money.
A number of amateur retail traders have since piled into anything from big blue-chip stocks, to those of bankrupt car rental company Hertz, as well as into several other near-worthless stocks such as retailer JCPenney. This comes as a frenzy of day-trading flooded equity markets in recent months, with amateurs seeking to profit from a swathe of stock-price crashes in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.
El-Erian said a sharp economic downturn resulting from a "considerable monetary or fiscal policy mistake" or market defaults would increase the likelihood of "further market turmoil..especially given the current lack of a short base to buffer the downturn."
He concluded: "This exposes small retail investors to big potential losses. It risks broader economic damage and could end up pulling central banks even deeper into distorting price signals and undermining the markets' role in efficiently allocating resources throughout the economy."
Originally posted on Business Insider