EDITOR NOTE: However you present the case of gold as a strategic asset, the fact remains that gold’s strategic relevance in any portfolio is that it has been and always will be the bedrock of value supporting any form of money. Gold is money, period. True, it has legacy industrial use and is a component for a lot of new tech developments as well. But as long as there are fiat currency and central banks to manipulate the supply of that currency with no gold backing to tether its value, then gold is positioned to steadily rise as the fiat system devalues itself by virtue of what it is--a manipulable substitute. We see this in the dollar, having lost over 95% of its value since 1913. Purchasing non-CUSIP gold coins and bars would be one of the smartest and most prudent moves you’ll ever make when it comes to securing your financial future. You can’t build a reliable house atop a faulty foundation. Similarly, you can’t build wealth if the foundation upon which it’s built is based on an artificial paper substitute.
Gold benefits from diverse sources of demand: as an investment, a reserve asset, jewellery, and a technology component. It is highly liquid, no one’s liability, carries no credit risk, and is scarce, historically preserving its value over time.
Extraordinary times with extraordinary opportunities
2020 posed unprecedented challenges to investors as the first global pandemic in a century ravaged the world economically and socially.
COVID-19 significantly increased uncertainty by compounding existing risks and creating new ones. The rollout of new vaccines at the end of last year fuelled optimism that the worst was over. Yet the pandemic and the ensuing policy response from governments will likely have unintended consequences for, and create structural changes to, asset allocation strategies.
Global central banks have effectively taken interest rates to zero, driving nearly all sovereign debt to negative real yields. With less opportunity for yield across fixed income assets – especially those of shorter duration or higher quality – investors will likely continue to shift exposure to riskier assets. This has pushed many global stock markets to extreme levels on numerous valuation metrics and – importantly - has also served to increase the risk profile of most investment portfolios.
Additionally, many countries have made it clear they will continue to enact sizeable fiscal policy measures to tackle the economic impact of COVID-19, along with expanding budget deficits and balance sheets.
We believe these actions - in combination with the current environment have made gold increasingly relevant as a strategic asset. Not only could investors benefit from gold’s role as a diversifier amid ballooning budget deficits, inflationary pressures, and potential market corrections from already high equity valuations, but they may also see additional support as gold consumption will likely benefit from the nascent economic recovery, especially in emerging markets (see 2021 Gold Outlook).
Over recent years, investors have increasingly looked to integrate environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations as part of their investment process. For example, 89% of European investors now take ESG factors into account when they make investment decisions.2 This increased emphasis on ESG reflects increasing pressure for businesses to actively manage ESG risks. It also emphasises that good ESG performance could lead to better long-term financial performance.3 This shift towards a greater integration has important implications for gold, which needs to demonstrate that it is produced and sourced responsibly, as well as the role that gold can play in supporting ESG objectives within a portfolio (Focus 2: Gold as an ESG investment).4
The increased relevance of gold
Institutional investors5 have embraced alternatives to traditional stocks and bonds in pursuit of diversification and higher risk-adjusted returns. The share of non-traditional assets, such as hedge funds, private equity funds or commodities, among global pension funds increased from 7% in 1998 to 23% in 2019 – this figure is 30% in the US (Chart 1).6
Gold allocations have been recipients of this shift. Investors increasingly recognise gold as a mainstream investment; global investment demand has grown by an average of 15% per year since 2001 and the gold price has increased almost seven-fold over the same period.7
Chart 1: Alternative investments including gold have become a key portfolio strategy
Gold performance has been strong in recent decades, supported by key structural changes
Gold’s strategic role
Our analysis shows gold is a clear complement to equities, bonds and broad-based portfolios. A store of wealth and a hedge against systemic risk, currency depreciation and inflation, gold has historically improved portfolios’ risk-adjusted returns, delivered positive returns, and provided liquidity to meet liabilities in times of market stress.
A source of returns
Investors have long considered gold a beneficial asset during periods of uncertainty. Historically, it has generated long-term positive returns in both good and bad economic times. Looking back almost half a century, the price of gold in US dollars has increased by an average of nearly 11% per year since 19719 when the gold standard collapsed.10 Over this period, gold’s long-term return is comparable to equities and higher than bonds.11 Gold has also outperformed many other major asset classes over the past five, 10 and 20 years (Chart 2 and Chart 3).
This duality reflects the diverse sources of demand for gold and differentiates it from other investment assets. Gold is often used to protect and enhance wealth over the long term as it is no one’s liability, and it operates as a means of exchange due to its global recognition.
Gold is also in demand via the jewellery market, valued by consumers across the world. And it is a key component in electronics.12 These diverse sources of demand give gold a particular resilience: the potential to deliver solid returns in various market conditions (Chart 7, p6).
Chart 2: Gold has outperformed most broad-based portfolio components over the past two decades*
Average annual return of key global assets in US dollars*
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