Grab your coffee, because this was one of those weeks where gold looked like it had a plan and then tossed it out the window. Metals mostly went sideways through Wednesday while the Gulf kept pushing oil up, and on Thursday gold and silver took a real tumble, even though bond yields were falling, which usually helps. Here's the quick tour. Next week is a big one, with the Fed's decision on Wednesday and GDP and inflation numbers on Thursday.
DAILY RECAP
๐ก Monday (10.19.26): Gold $4,137.80 ยท Silver $56.93
Gold slipped 0.63% and silver barely moved, up 0.12%. A stronger dollar and higher yields were the main headwinds, and a rebound in tech stocks pulled some money away from metals.
Short version: The dollar beat out the Gulf drama.
๐ต Tuesday (10.20.26): Gold $4,122.50 ยท Silver $57.80
Gold dipped 0.42% even as yields eased, while silver jumped 1.45%. Weak housing data came out, but traders still expect a Fed hike by December.
Short version: Bad housing news wasn't enough to lift gold.
๐ข Wednesday (10.21.26): Gold $4,141.01 ยท Silver $57.98
A quiet bounce: gold up 0.66% and silver up 0.34%, as the dollar softened and yields settled near 5.1%. Stocks had a good day, led by tech.
Short version: A softer dollar gave metals a breather.
๐ฃ Thursday (10.22.26): Gold $4,021.20 ยท Silver $54.44
Ouch. Gold fell 2.88% and silver 5.90% even with Treasury yields dropping. Stocks had their worst day since July, with the S&P 500 down 1.21%, and metals got dragged along. Oil also jumped above $113 on fresh Iran-related attacks.
Short version: Falling yields couldn't save metals on a day when stocks sold off.
๐ Friday (10.23.26): Gold $4,026.56 ยท Silver $53.80 (opening figures)
Gold held around $4,027 and silver slipped about 1.2%, which leaves gold down roughly 3.5% on the week and silver down about 6.6%. Brent climbed toward $115, its highest in about five months, as ship attacks continued near Hormuz. The 10-year yield bounced back to around 5.0%, and traders see about a 78% chance of at least one more Fed hike by December.
Short version: Oil kept climbing, and metals ended the week on the ropes.
Housing Hit a Wall, but Gold Barely Noticed
The big picture
Home construction fell 5.2% in September, and pending home sales dropped 7.3%, the lowest since records began in 2001. Weak housing should help gold by making the Fed less eager to hike. This time it didn't.
Why it matters
Housing is where high rates bite first, but with inflation at 3.7%, the Fed is watching prices, not home sales.
What to watch
New home sales on Tuesday.
The bottom line
Short version: With inflation this hot, gold has to ignore a lot of bad news.
The Strait of Hormuz Is Still the Wild Card
The big picture
Attacks on ships and Saudi energy sites kept oil near its highest level since May, and Brent topped $113 on Thursday. Hopes of renewed talks flickered on Tuesday and faded.
Why it matters
Tension normally lifts gold. But higher oil means higher inflation, and that keeps the Fed tough.
What to watch
Whether the U.S. and Iran actually get back to the table.
The bottom line
Short version: When a crisis pushes up oil, it can end up hurting gold instead.
The Fed Is Expected to Sit Tight, Then Hike in December
The big picture
Markets see about an 84% chance the Fed holds next week, and a December hike as the base case.
Why it matters
With 10-year yields around 5%, you can earn more in bonds than in gold, which pays nothing. That's the headwind metals keep fighting.
What to watch
The Fed's decision on Wednesday, and how Chair Warsh sounds when he talks about December.
The bottom line
Short version: Gold is trading on December, not October.
A Big Bank Just Trimmed Its Gold Forecast
The big picture
CIBC cut its end-of-2026 gold target to $4,500 from $6,500. It still expects gold to average $5,200 in 2027.
Why it matters
Even bullish banks now see the Fed and the dollar as headwinds. They're betting central banks and ETF buyers will keep gold afloat over time.
What to watch
Whether other banks follow with cuts of their own.
The bottom line
Short version: Even the optimists are turning down the volume, but they haven't left the room.
Even the Royal Mint Is Seeing a Silver Rush
The big picture
The Royal Mint says silver purchases on its site are up 295% so far this year. Silver and platinum have both already topped every previous full year's sales.
Why it matters
Everyday buyers keep showing up, and 29% of the Mint's buyers last quarter were first-timers, even with prices falling and yields climbing.
What to watch
Whether demand holds up if yields keep rising.
The bottom line
Short version: Prices dipped, and plenty of people went shopping.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Monday, Oct. 26
- No events scheduled.
Tuesday, Oct. 27
- 8:30 am โ Durable Goods (Sep.)
- 10:00 am โ New Home Sales (Sep.)
- 10:00 am โ Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.)
Wednesday, Oct. 28
- 2:00 pm โ FOMC Interest Rate Decision
Thursday, Oct. 29
- 8:30 am โ Advance GDP Estimate (3Q)
- 8:30 am โ Weekly Jobless Claims (Oct. 24)
- 8:30 am โ Personal Income and Consumer Spending (Sep.)
- 8:30 am โ PCE Price Index and Core PCE (Sep.)
Friday, Oct. 30
- 8:30 am โ Employment Cost Index (3Q)
IMPACT ON PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS
Durable Goods: Firm orders mean businesses are still spending, which supports a hike. Soft orders would help metals. Moderate impact.
New Home Sales: After this week's weak housing numbers, another miss would reinforce the slowdown story. Moderate impact.
Consumer Confidence: A rebound means households are coping with high prices. A slide points to strain. Moderate impact.
FOMC Decision: The main event. A hold is expected, so what matters is Chair Warsh's tone on December. Hawkish is rough on gold, and patient helps. High impact.
GDP: Strong growth keeps the hike case alive, and a weak number would take some pressure off metals. Moderate to high impact.
Jobless Claims: Claims just fell to a three-month low of 194,000. Another low reading says the job market is holding up, a mild headwind for gold. Moderate impact.
Personal Income and Spending: Strong spending would support more tightening. A pullback would help metals. Moderate impact.
PCE Prices: The Fed's favorite inflation gauge. Hot numbers back a December hike, and cooler ones help gold. High impact.
Employment Cost Index: It shows whether wage pressure is feeding inflation. Moderate to high impact.
Takeaway: Circle Wednesday's Fed decision and Thursday's inflation numbers. Those are the two days most likely to move gold and silver.
