Happy Friday. If you're reading this with a coffee in hand, here's the short story: the Fed held steady, the economic data came in hot, and oil kept climbing, which left gold under $4,000 and silver at its lowest price of the year. Here's the quick tour. Next week is a busy one, with the midterm elections on Tuesday and the October jobs report on Friday.
DAILY RECAP
๐จ Monday (10.26.26): Gold $4,016.20 ยท Silver $53.85
Gold climbed back above $4,000 as oil cooled. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan were trying to restart talks with Iran, and that took some heat out of crude.
Short version: Calmer oil gave gold room to recover.
๐ฆ Tuesday (10.27.26): Gold $4,058.20 ยท Silver $54.20
Gold gained 1.05% and silver 0.66%. Durable goods, consumer confidence and new home sales all beat expectations, yet stocks rallied and metals came along for the ride.
Short version: Good economic news didn't scare gold off this time.
๐ฉ Wednesday (10.28.26): Gold $4,056.80 ยท Silver $53.72
The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4% in a 10-2 vote. Two officials wanted a hike, and the Fed said the economy is growing at a "strong pace." Gold barely moved, and silver slipped about 1%.
Short version: The Fed kept its options open, and December is still on the table.
๐ช Thursday (10.29.26): Gold $4,024.60 ยท Silver $52.18
Metals fell after a hot batch of data. GDP grew 3.4%, and September inflation (PCE) ran at 3.6% over the year. Gold slid about 0.8% and silver about 2.9%. A big tech earnings miss pulled the Nasdaq down 1.44%.
Short version: Strong growth and sticky inflation make a December hike harder to doubt.
๐ง Friday (10.30.26): Gold $3,958.80 ยท Silver $50.08 (opening figures)
Gold dropped below $4,000 and silver fell about 4% to its lowest level of the year. A tanker was hit by explosives in the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent jumped to about $117. That leaves gold down roughly 1.7% on the week and silver about 6.9%, and gold is headed for a second straight monthly loss.
Short version: Oil climbed again, and metals ended the week at their lows.
The Fed Held Rates, but Two Officials Wanted a Hike
The big picture
The Fed left its rate at 3.75%-4% on Wednesday. The vote was 10-2, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack both asking for a quarter-point hike. The Fed also said the economy is expanding at a "strong pace" and that inflation is still elevated.
Why it matters
A pause with two hawkish votes tells traders the Fed isn't done. With the 10-year Treasury yield sitting around 5%, gold, which pays nothing, has a hard time competing.
What to watch
The Fed's Dec. 8-9 meeting. Futures put the odds of a quarter-point hike there at about 83%.
The bottom line
Short version: The Fed paused, but it didn't sound finished.
Oil Is Near $117, and the Strait of Hormuz Is Still Tense
The big picture
Brent crude is on track for a gain of about 13% in October, and it was near $117 on Friday morning. Hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran talks rose and fell all week. On Friday, a commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by explosives attached to its hull, which maritime security authorities confirmed. Nobody has claimed responsibility.
Why it matters
Crises usually help gold. But when they push oil higher, inflation worries grow and the Fed stays tough, and that has been the bigger force on metals lately.
What to watch
Whether the talks go anywhere. A letter from Vice President JD Vance and a separate draft from Qatari mediators are both in play, though a senior Iranian official dismissed the Qatari proposal.
The bottom line
Short version: Every flare-up in oil has made life harder for gold.
A Strong Economy Gave Gold Another Reason to Slip
The big picture
Tuesday brought a jump in consumer confidence to 91.7 and a 1.8% gain in durable goods orders. Then Thursday's numbers landed: third-quarter GDP grew 3.4% (about 3.2% was expected), and September inflation by the PCE measure hit 3.6% over the year, up from 3.4%.
Why it matters
Growth that strong, plus inflation that high, makes it tough for the Fed to ease up. The ECB also held its rate at 2.50% on Thursday but said it could consider more tightening if inflation lingers.
What to watch
Next Friday's jobs report, which could add to the case for a December hike or soften it.
The bottom line
Short version: Good news for the economy has been bad news for gold.
Analysts Are Trimming Their Gold Forecasts Again
The big picture
A Reuters survey found analysts cut their 2026 gold forecasts for a second straight quarter, pointing to high Treasury yields and a strong dollar. They still expect a recovery in 2027. Platinum and palladium forecasts were cut for a third straight quarter.
Why it matters
Capital Economics said rising oil and the risk of a more hawkish Fed are weighing on gold. When forecasters turn more cautious, it can make traders more cautious too.
What to watch
Whether gold can win back $4,000.
The bottom line
Short version: Forecasters are less sure about this year, but they still like 2027.
Silver Fell to Its Lowest Price of the Year
The big picture
Silver slid from about $54.20 on Tuesday to $50.08 on Friday morning, its lowest level of 2026. That's roughly 6.9% lower on the week, compared with about 1.7% for gold.
Why it matters
Silver feels the same rate and dollar pressure as gold, plus worries about industrial demand and slowing manufacturing. At Friday's prices, one ounce of gold buys about 79 ounces of silver.
What to watch
Monday's ISM manufacturing report, which shows how factories are doing.
The bottom line
Short version: Silver took the hardest hit of the week.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Monday, Nov. 2
- 10:00 am โ ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)
Tuesday, Nov. 3
- 10:00 am โ JOLTS Job Openings (Sep.)
Wednesday, Nov. 4
- 8:15 am โ ADP Employment Report (Oct.)
- 10:00 am โ ISM Services PMI (Oct.)
Thursday, Nov. 5
- 8:30 am โ Preliminary Productivity and Costs (3Q)
- 8:30 am โ Weekly Jobless Claims (Oct. 31)
Friday, Nov. 6
- 8:30 am โ Employment Report, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings (Oct.)
- 10:00 am โ University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, preliminary (Nov.)
IMPACT ON PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS
ISM Manufacturing PMI: It showed 54.5 last time. Firm factory activity would back the hike case, though silver also likes strong industrial demand. Moderate impact.
JOLTS: The last reading was 7.1 million job openings. Fewer openings would hint at a cooling job market and help gold, while more would add to hike talk. Moderate impact.
ADP Employment: The last reading was 90,000. It's a preview of Friday's report, so a surprise here can move markets early. Moderate impact.
ISM Services PMI: It showed 54.9 last time. Services drive most of the economy, so a firm number supports the hike case. Moderate impact.
Productivity and Costs: Productivity grew 1.4% last quarter. The labor cost figures show whether wages are pushing up inflation. Moderate impact.
Jobless Claims: Claims have stayed low, which points to a sturdy job market. Moderate impact.
Employment Report: The main event of the week. The last report showed 29,000 jobs, 4.2% unemployment and wage growth of 0.1% for the month (3.0% over the year). With a December hike the base case, a strong report could pressure metals, and a weak one could help. High impact.
Michigan Sentiment: It was 46.3 last time, very low. The report also includes inflation expectations, which the Fed watches closely. Moderate impact.
Takeaway: Circle Friday's jobs report. Wednesday's ADP and services numbers will hint at what's coming.
