Pull up a chair, because this was a week of big swings. Oil dropped hard on hopes of an Iran deal, Democrats won Congress, and on Thursday stocks had their worst day since April 2025. Through all of it, gold climbed back above $4,000. Silver bounced too, though it got shakier by the end. Next week the big one is Tuesday's inflation report.
DAILY RECAP
๐ต Monday (11.02.26): Gold $3,945.80 ยท Silver $50.80
Gold jumped 1.84% and silver 3.67% as oil fell about 7.6% on Iran talks. Factory activity beat expectations, and traders still saw a December hike as likely.
Short version: Cheaper oil gave metals a bounce after a rough October.
๐ข Tuesday (11.03.26): Gold $3,924.10 ยท Silver $49.45
It was Election Day. Job openings and factory orders came in strong, and the 10-year yield rose to 4.95%. Gold slipped about 0.5% and silver about 2.7%.
Short version: Strong data kept metals on the back foot.
๐ก Wednesday (11.04.26): Gold $4,065.90 ยท Silver $52.28
Democrats won Congress. The dollar and yields dropped, oil sank more than 8%, and stocks rallied. Gold rose about 3.6% and silver nearly 5.7%.
Short version: A weaker dollar and cheaper oil lifted metals at once.
๐ Thursday (11.05.26): Gold $4,087.26 ยท Silver $51.78
Stocks plunged, with the S&P 500 down 4.36%, its worst day since April 2025, on AI spending worries. Gold gained about 0.5% and silver slipped about 1%. December hike odds eased to about two in three.
Short version: Gold held up on the day stocks fell apart.
๐ฃ Friday (11.06.26, opening figures): Gold $4,050.95 ยท Silver $51.86
The jobs report showed 165,000 new jobs against about 65,000 expected. Gold slipped about 0.9% at the open, while silver edged up about 0.2%. December hike odds climbed to roughly three in four.
Short version: A hot jobs number cooled gold, but it stayed above $4,000.
Democrats Took Congress, and Metals Jumped
The big picture
Democrats won both the House and the Senate on Tuesday. On Wednesday, gold gained about 3.6% to $4,065.90 and silver nearly 5.7% to $52.28.
Why it matters
Investors are betting on gridlock and tighter government spending. The dollar slid and the 10-year yield dropped to about 4.88%, which helps metals that pay no interest.
What to watch
Whether the dollar stays soft. Kitco also notes that gold has risen an average of 14% in the year after the last 13 midterms, though that's a small sample.
The bottom line
Short version: A new Congress, a weaker dollar, and a very good day for metals.
Oil Dropped Hard on Hopes of an Iran Deal
The big picture
Brent crude fell 7.6% on Monday to $104.77, its biggest one-day drop since July. It fell another 8.7% on Wednesday to $94.62. A week earlier it was near $117.
Why it matters
Cheaper oil eases inflation worries, which makes a Fed hike a little less likely. That's been a big help to gold.
What to watch
Qatar is mediating, and Iranian and Qatari officials have been meeting for days. There's no agreement yet, and Brent bounced back to $98.29 on Thursday.
The bottom line
Short version: When the Gulf calms down, oil falls, and gold breathes easier.
Strong Data Kept a December Hike in View
The big picture
Early in the week, the numbers kept coming in strong. Factory activity beat forecasts, and job openings climbed to a multi-month high.
Why it matters
A firm economy gives the Fed room to keep raising rates. The 10-year yield rose to 4.95% on Tuesday, and gold and silver both fell that day.
What to watch
Tuesday's inflation report. Futures had a December hike at around 80% midweek.
The bottom line
Short version: Good news for the economy is still not-so-good news for gold.
Wall Street Had Its Worst Day Since April 2025
The big picture
On Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the Nasdaq 5.52%. The selling was blamed on worries about AI stocks, profit-taking and regulation fears after the election. Nvidia dropped about 9% and AMD fell by double digits.
Why it matters
The 10-year yield fell to about 4.8%, and December hike odds slid to roughly two in three. Gold finished up about 0.5% at $4,087, after touching $4,148.
What to watch
Whether the sell-off continues, and what the jobs report says about the labor market.
The bottom line
Short version: Stocks slid hard, and gold still came out ahead on the day.
Friday's Jobs Report Blew Past Expectations
The big picture
Employers added 165,000 jobs in October, well above the 65,000 economists expected, and the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2%. Wages rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% over the year. August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000 jobs.
Why it matters
A strong job market gives the Fed one more reason to keep raising rates. After Thursday's drop, the odds of a December hike climbed back to roughly three in four from about two in three, and the dollar index rose 0.7% to around 102.2.
What to watch
Tuesday's inflation report. A hot CPI on top of this jobs number would make December's decision even harder to call.
The bottom line
Short version: A strong job market keeps a December hike in play.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Monday, Nov. 9
- No events scheduled.
Tuesday, Nov. 10
- 8:30 am โ CPI and Core CPI (Oct.)
Wednesday, Nov. 11
- No events scheduled.
Thursday, Nov. 12
- 9:00 am โ Fed's Beth Hammack in conversation with Ohio State students
- 6:30 pm โ Fed's John Williams at a UC Berkeley panel
Friday, Nov. 13
- 8:30 am โ PPI (Oct.)
IMPACT ON PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS
CPI: Prices rose 0.6% last month and 3.7% over the year, with core up 0.3%. It's the Fed's next big clue for December. A hot number would pressure metals, and a cool one could help. High impact.
PPI: The last reading was 1.3% on the month and 6.3% over the year. It shows whether business costs are about to reach shoppers. Moderate to high impact.
Hammack: She was one of two officials who voted for a hike in October. Her tone on December will get a close look. Moderate to high impact.
Williams: He runs the New York Fed, so his comments often hint at where the Fed is headed. Moderate to high impact.
Takeaway: Circle Tuesday's CPI report. It's the best clue yet on whether the Fed hikes in December.
