Is silver overbought after its explosive run past $95 an ounce? With silver up roughly 150% in 2025 and analysts warning that FOMO is now driving prices, investors are increasingly asking whether the risk-reward has tilted too far. At the same time, gold continues to attract steady, long-term demand — with central banks buying an estimated 60–70 tons per month, according to Goldman Sachs — making it look far less stretched by comparison. For investors considering precious metals today, the question may not be whether to buy, but which metal offers safer upside from here.
Monday (1.19.26): Gold and silver cooled off Thursday after their recent monster run, with gold down $25 to $4,610 and silver slipping slightly to about $90.90 after hitting another record overnight. The pause comes as some geopolitical tension fades—President Trump said the U.S. is less likely to strike Iran after being told Tehran is easing its crackdown on protesters, and he also said he doesn’t plan to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, dialing back fears of policy chaos. Adding to the calmer tone, Trump is holding off on new tariffs on critical-mineral imports for now, opting to negotiate supply deals instead—giving markets a brief breather after weeks of headline-driven volatility.
Tuesday (1.20.26): Gold and silver just smashed fresh all-time highs as investors rushed into safe havens, with February gold up $157 to $4,752 and March silver jumping more than $5 to $93.89. The spark: global stocks sliding and nerves spiking after tensions flared between the U.S. and Europe over President Trump’s push to take control of Greenland, plus new tariff threats aimed at France and other EU countries ahead of his high-profile Davos appearance. The EU is weighing retaliation on up to €93B of U.S. goods, adding trade-war vibes to the mix, while bond markets are also flashing stress as a selloff in Japanese government debt pushed U.S. yields to four-month highs—another combo that tends to send investors running for gold.
Wednesday (1.21.26): Gold is still higher after blasting to a new record overnight, but slipped from its highs after President Trump said in Davos he won’t use force to acquire Greenland, easing some of the market’s risk-off mood. February gold futures are up $84.80 at $4,850.30 after touching $4,891.10, while silver is down about $1 to $93.59 on profit-taking despite hitting $95.78 earlier this week. Safe-haven demand remains strong thanks to central banks buying more gold (Poland plans another 150 tons) and growing stress in Japan’s bond market, where rising yields and election uncertainty could spill over globally and keep investors leaning defensive.
Thursday (1.22.26): Gold hovered near this week’s record highs and silver smashed into a fresh all-time peak near $96, powered by chart-chasing traders and full-on bullish momentum. The rally kept rolling even as investors felt a bit braver after President Trump said he’d hold off on new Europe tariffs tied to the Greenland standoff, while Japan’s bond market also calmed down following a midweek scare and some “buy-the-dip” action in long-dated debt. Bottom line: metals stayed shiny as geopolitical drama cooled, bond nerves eased, and traders doubled down on the uptrend.
Friday (1.23.26): Gold and silver hit fresh records overnight, with silver pushing toward $100, Japan’s bond market steadied after the BOJ held rates but upgraded its inflation outlook, the EU restarted its U.S. trade deal after Trump walked back tariff threats and agreed to a Greenland security framework with NATO, and U.S. envoys met Putin on Ukraine—where Moscow said a deal is still blocked by territorial demands.
—---
The big picture
Inflation cooled… but not enough. The Fed’s favorite metric says prices are still running above target heading into next week’s policy meeting.
Driving the news
The PCE index rose 0.2% in November and 2.8% year over year — slightly hotter than expected. Core inflation (excluding food & energy) came in the same.
Services inflation stayed sticky, goods prices kept rising, and consumers kept spending — even as income growth slowed and savings fell.
By the numbers
• 2.8% — headline PCE inflation (YoY)
• 2.8% — core PCE (YoY)
• 0.2% — monthly increase
• 3.5% — personal savings rate (3-year low)
• 95% — odds the Fed holds rates next week
Why it matters
Sticky inflation + strong spending = the Fed stays cautious. Rate cuts look unlikely anytime soon, even as households dip deeper into savings.
What to watch
• Next Fed decision
• Services inflation trend
• Consumer spending vs. income growth
• Any surprise shift in rate-cut expectations
The bottom line
Inflation isn’t surging — but it isn’t done either. For now, the Fed is staying put, and consumers are carrying the economy on thinner savings.
The big picture
Silver just blasted past $95/oz — but BCA says the move is getting frothy and risky.
Driving the news
BCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim says the rally is now powered by FOMO more than fundamentals. The macro story (inflation hedging, geopolitics, currency debasement) is mostly priced in, supply fears from China are overblown, and some solar manufacturers are already ditching silver for cheaper metals.
By the numbers
• >$95 — record silver price
• +31% — gain this month
• ~+150% — gain in 2025
• 200-day MA — stretched to pullback territory
Why it matters
Speculative rallies break fast. If sentiment turns, losses can pile up just as quickly as gains.
What to watch
• A drop below key technical levels
• More industrial demand switching away from silver
• The gold/silver ratio turning higher
The bottom line
BCA’s take: don’t chase this move. Silver may be a long-term story, but right now it looks overheated. Gold, not silver, is the safer bet.
—
The big picture
Morgan Stanley says the U.S. dollar still lacks a true currency rival—but gold is emerging as its most serious challenger as BRICS nations accelerate reserve diversification.
Driving the news
The bank argues the global system is moving toward a more “multipolar” financial order, fueled by trade wars, sanctions, and President Trump’s policies, which are nudging countries to reduce reliance on the dollar.
Instead of backing a new BRICS currency, Morgan Stanley points to gold as the practical alternative: it’s liquid, politically neutral, and already being accumulated aggressively by BRICS central banks.
By the numbers
• #1 buyer bloc: BRICS has led global central-bank gold purchases since 2022.
• +30%: Increase in BRICS gold reserves over the past five years.
• 2022: Sanctions on Russia marked the turning point for accelerated gold buying.
Why it matters
Gold doesn’t need to “replace” the dollar to weaken it. Every shift in reserves away from U.S. assets and toward bullion reduces dollar dominance at the margins—slowly reshaping global capital flows.
What to watch
• Central-bank gold purchase data from China, Russia, and India.
• Any policy moves that further weaponize trade or sanctions.
• Whether European leaders follow through on calls to engage more closely with BRICS.
The bottom line
Morgan Stanley’s message is blunt: the dollar’s biggest threat isn’t another currency—it’s gold. De-dollarization is happening quietly through reserve diversification, not revolution.
—
The big picture
Japan’s bond market just woke up after decades of zero-rate sleep — and Wall Street is watching nervously.
Driving the news
The Bank of Japan stopped tightly controlling bond prices. Yields jumped. Investors sold. Leveraged trades unwound.
Now global markets are repricing risk, and U.S. Treasury yields are moving higher in sympathy.
By the numbers
• ~4%+ — Japan’s 40-year yield (record high)
• ~250% — debt-to-GDP
• ~2%+ — 10-year yield, first real breakout in decades
• $1T+ — Japanese money invested overseas
Why it matters
Japan is a giant lender to the world. If yields at home stay high, that money can come back home — out of U.S. bonds, stocks, and credit markets.
That means higher borrowing costs, less liquidity, stronger yen, and more volatility globally.
What to watch
• Japanese funds selling foreign assets
• U.S. yields jumping alongside JGBs
• The BOJ stepping back in
• Stress in stocks or credit markets
The bottom line
This isn’t just Japan’s problem. If JGB yields keep climbing, global markets could feel the squeeze fast.
—
The big picture
Goldman just went bigger on gold: $5,400 an ounce by end-2026.
Driving the news
The bank says gold demand isn’t just about central banks anymore — private investors are piling in for long-term protection against debt, inflation, and policy chaos.
Central banks are still buying heavily, ETFs are growing, and the Fed is expected to cut rates in 2026. Translation: lots of buyers, not many sellers.
By the numbers
• $5,400 — new target
• $4,900 — old target
• +10% — upgrade
• 60–70 tons/month — central-bank buying
• ~500 tons — ETF inflows since 2025
• 0.17% — gold’s share of U.S. portfolios
Why it matters
Gold is shifting from a trade to a core reserve asset. That makes demand stickier — and price drops harder to sustain.
What to watch
• Central-bank buying
• ETF flows
• Fed rate cuts
• Private investors boosting allocations
The bottom line
Goldman’s message: gold isn’t done. Central banks + private money + global uncertainty = higher prices still in play.
—
Economic Calendar: January 26 – January 30, 2026 (ET)
MONDAY, Jan. 26
• 8:30 am — Durable-Goods Orders (Nov., delayed report)
TUESDAY, Jan. 27
• 10:00 am — Consumer Confidence (Jan.)
WEDNESDAY, Jan. 28
• 2:00 pm — FOMC Interest-Rate Decision
• 2:30 pm — Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
THURSDAY, Jan. 29
• 8:30 am — Initial Jobless Claims (Jan. 24)
FRIDAY, Jan. 30
• 8:30 am — Producer Price Index (Dec., delayed report)
Durable-Goods Orders (Mon, 8:30 am ET)
• Strong orders → business investment strength; mildly bearish for gold/silver.
• Weak orders → manufacturing slowdown narrative; mildly bullish for metals.
Backward-looking data; moderate relevance due to delayed release.
Consumer Confidence (Tue, 10:00 am ET)
• Rising confidence → resilient consumer spending outlook; bearish for gold/silver.
• Falling confidence → growth concerns increase; bullish for metals.
Sentiment indicator; secondary to Fed events.
FOMC Rate Decision (Wed, 2:00 pm ET)
• Hawkish hold or hike → higher real-rate expectations; strongly bearish for gold/silver.
• Dovish hold or rate cut signal → falling real yields; strongly bullish for metals.
Highest-impact event of the week.
Powell Press Conference (Wed, 2:30 pm ET)
• Emphasis on inflation risks → reinforces tight policy path; bearish for metals.
• Emphasis on growth risks / financial conditions → supports easing narrative; bullish for metals.
Often more market-moving than the statement itself.
Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, 8:30 am ET)
• Rising claims → labor-market softening narrative; bullish for gold/silver.
• Persistently low claims → supports “higher for longer” rates; bearish for metals.
High-frequency labor signal.
Producer Price Index (Fri, 8:30 am ET)
• Hot PPI → upstream inflation signal; bearish for gold/silver.
• Cooling PPI → inflation pipeline easing; bullish for metals.
Important inflation input ahead of future CPI/PCE releases; moderate-to-high impact.
Last week, markets hit turbulence across the board: gold and silver tumbled after record highs…
Last week, markets stayed on edge as geopolitical tensions escalated, Washington flirted with another shutdown,…
Last week was a fear-fueled sprint into metals. Gold and silver smashed record highs as…
This past week brought a sharp geopolitical escalation as U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro, abruptly…
The new year opens with gold and silver firmly at record highs, underscoring how powerful—and…
Gold and silver ripped into Christmas week with a string of record highs on geopolitical…
This website uses cookies.
Read More