Monday - 10.20.25: Gold and silver surged in midday Monday trade on corrective bounces after Friday’s selloff, with bargain hunters stepping in despite extreme day-to-day volatility that hints at a climaxing phase—or at least a choppy, whipsaw-prone stretch ahead; December gold rose $150.00 to $4,363.90 and December silver gained $1.316 to $51.40. Risk sentiment improved as President Trump moved to ease U.S.–China trade tensions after bank-credit jitters, yet safe-haven interest held up; a 20-day U.S. government shutdown and the resulting data blackout added bullish uncertainty for metals, while global stocks and U.S. indexes traded higher.
Tuesday - 10.21.25: Gold and silver plunged near midday Tuesday amid panic long liquidation and margin-call selling by short-term speculators, compounded by a broader risk-on mood as U.S. stock indexes neared record highs; December gold fell $215.00 to $4,143.00 and December silver dropped $3.50 to $47.85. The retreat followed Monday’s bargain hunting that briefly pushed gold futures to a record $4,398.00, but the surge in day-to-day volatility now looks extreme—often a sign of a climaxing phase—and has begun spilling into other futures, with traders invoking the adage “if you can’t sell what you want, sell what you can,” as losses in metals nudged some selling in grains.
Wednesday - 10.22.25: Gold fell sharply in midday U.S. trading Wednesday on follow-through selling and a broader risk-on tone, with December gold down $56.00 to $4,052.00, while silver steadied—December silver up $0.191 to $47.88—but bulls aren’t in the clear. The outlook pivots on silver’s $50.00 threshold: the author upgrades his timing metaphor to the “ninth inning with two outs,” noting that in the past 50 years silver has only held above $50 briefly; staying above it for two weeks would signal a new, higher trading regime for both metals, while slipping back below would argue for extended corrections or even bear markets. For now, reclaiming $50 looks difficult, making the rest of this week’s tape action especially important for the path ahead.
Thursday - 10.23.25: Gold and silver jumped sharply in midday U.S. trading Thursday on corrective rebounds and bargain hunting after heavy selling, though persistent high volatility is a headwind for bulls; December gold rose $90.50 to $4,156.50 and December silver gained $1.259 to $48.94. Meanwhile, London spot platinum surged as much as 6.4% to $1,646.03, with the spot premium over futures widening to $53.45 from $28, signaling a scramble for physical supply; TD Securities’ Dan Ghali said the market is tightening with dislocations reaching extremes, echoing fears of another silver-squeeze moment.
Friday - 10.24.25: Gold and silver slumped in early U.S. trading Friday—December gold −$73 to $4,072 and December silver −$1.034 to $47.665—amid extreme volatility, bear-flag setups, and stronger risk appetite with U.S. indexes near records. Overnight, Trump said he’s terminating U.S.–Canada trade talks after an Ontario-funded anti-tariff ad using Reagan’s remarks. The September CPI showed a 0.3% increase from the previous month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3%, both of which are lower than expected.
Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen says the sharp pullback in precious metals was a long-overdue reset after a powerful, technically stretched rally. Despite steeper losses in silver—amplified by thinner liquidity—both metals remain under-owned in portfolios and their structural bull drivers are intact.
Hansen argues that a mix of factors primed the reversal: a risk-on turn in equities, a firmer dollar, and seasonal dynamics around Diwali—where strong pre-Diwali buying gave way to softer post-holiday physical demand from Asia. Technically, gold’s three failed attempts to break above ~$4,380 flipped trader psychology from greed to protection, triggering a crowded exit by leveraged participants. The selloff exposed the liquidity gap—silver’s market depth is roughly one-ninth of gold’s—magnifying both the ascent and the decline. Prices briefly extended the drop before bouncing in the Asian session, with silver finding support near ~$47.80 and gold buyers reappearing just above ~$4,000. Hansen frames the move as healthy: it reduces bubble risk now rather than later.
Positioning had become one-sided; the correction resets risk and invites longer-horizon buyers back into a market Hansen still views as structurally supported. The under-ownership theme suggests room for allocation increases if macro supports—real-yield dynamics, geopolitical risk, and central-bank demand—reassert themselves. Silver’s thinner liquidity remains a double-edged sword: it can turbocharge upside squeezes as easily as downside air-pockets.
Hansen highlights the U.S. Section 232 probe into critical-mineral imports (including silver, platinum, and palladium) as a near-term swing factor. A no-tariff outcome could ease London tightness by freeing U.S. metal to flow to Europe, narrowing London-over-COMEX premiums and normalizing one-month lease rates. New tariffs, by contrast, could semi-strand U.S. metal, intensify scarcity in London, lift COMEX premiums, and spark a squeeze-driven retest—or break—of recent highs. He also flags upcoming Trump–Xi and Trump–Putin meetings (if they occur) as risk events for the duration of the setback.
In Hansen’s view, gold and silver just had the correction they needed: they’re no longer overbought, still under-owned, and—after a cleanse of froth—remain on a bullish track into 2026 if the structural drivers that powered this year’s surge persist.
An AWS outage rippled across banks, brokerages, and everyday apps, underscoring how dependent modern finance and daily life have become on a single cloud backbone. From account access at big banks to trading halts and streaming blackouts, one provider’s downtime cascaded into a broad, costly standstill—reviving questions about concentration risk and resilience just as Big Tech deepens ties with finance.
Customers at major banks such as Capital One and JPMorgan Chase were locked out of accounts, while trading platforms including Robinhood and Coinbase stalled during active market hours. A wider slowdown hit email and connectivity because AWS underpins a large share of internet services; knock-on effects reached Venmo, Fortnite, and Disney+. This episode also connects to Amazon’s growing role in banking—ongoing outreach to depositors and efforts to onboard younger Americans via wallets, data analytics, and ledger technologies—suggesting that cloud dominance plus fintech expansion can magnify systemic risk. Banks’ terms of service commonly disclaim liability for third-party failures, which means outages can strand consumers without recourse. Against a backdrop of a nationwide “digital financial framework” slated for Nov. 22, some observers frame a “perfect storm” of centralization, AI-driven fraud, and cloud exposure—and point to physical gold and silver as outage-proof, tamper-resistant hedges.
Single-vendor concentration means a technical fault or misconfiguration can ripple across payment rails, brokerage execution, and basic communications at once. If banks’ fine print shields them from outages caused by third parties, consumers shoulder the downtime risk precisely when they need access most. Pair that with concerns about deeper Big Tech–finance integration and AI-assisted fraud, and resilience shifts from a back-office issue to a front-page consumer risk. The case for owning physical metals rests on the idea that tangible assets don’t depend on cloud uptime, identity verification flows, or network availability.
Expect renewed scrutiny of cloud concentration, including multi-cloud failovers, on-prem hot backups, and incident transparency. Regulators may revisit operational-resilience standards for critical third-party service providers and how liability is apportioned between banks, fintechs, and cloud vendors. On the consumer side, pressure could build for clearer outage disclosures, faster remediation, and contingency access to funds. If a new digital framework rolls out, watch how data custody, surveillance concerns, and offline fallbacks are addressed—and whether institutions diversify beyond a single cloud.
This was a stress test for the “everything-on-one-cloud” era: convenient when it works, system-wide when it doesn’t. If finance keeps centralizing its digital plumbing, households and markets need sturdier Plan B’s, whether that’s multi-cloud architecture—or a sleeve of analog insurance in the form of physical gold and silver.
Six months ago, top finance officials feared Trump’s tariffs and policy uncertainty would stall global growth. Instead, the world economy has largely absorbed the tariff shock, even as officials still warn of lingering inflation risks and acknowledge that more effects could surface later.
Citigroup’s Nathan Sheets says policymakers misjudged the speed of tariff pass-through to real activity; pricing cycles are more gradual, with firms typically resetting prices on seasonal or annual schedules. That cadence has shielded customers so far, but it could shift in 2026 as contracts roll. Meanwhile, IMF director Kristalina Georgieva argues that a true “trade war” never materialized because most countries chose not to retaliate against the U.S. policy shift. At the same time, AI investment is supporting growth while potentially dampening hiring.
The mood among economic policy elites has brightened: so far, the global economy is adjusting to the Trump era’s trade dynamics better than expected. But delayed pass-through means inflation pressures may arrive in stages, and firms that have absorbed costs could later defend margins via price hikes or cost cuts—implications that may weigh on consumers and the labor market.
Upcoming seasonal and annual price resets that could reveal more tariff pass-through; signs of labor-market softness if companies continue trimming costs to protect profitability; and whether non-U.S. governments maintain their non-retaliatory posture or pivot to targeted responses as the landscape evolves. The balance between AI-driven productivity gains and employment effects also remains a key variable.
Financial markets—and, to a lesser extent, the broader economy—are granting the Trump administration more latitude than many expected in April. U.S. investors may be acclimating to the administration’s operating style, but that approach doesn’t always translate cleanly across borders.
Economic Calendar: October 27 – 31, 2025 (ET)
MONDAY, Oct 27
TUESDAY, Oct 28
WEDNESDAY, Oct 29
THURSDAY, Oct 30
FRIDAY, Oct 31
Government data subject to delay if shutdown continues.
S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (Tue, 9:00 am ET)
Consumer Confidence (Tue, 10:00 am ET)
Pending Home Sales (Wed, 10:00 am ET)
FOMC interest-rate decision (Wed, 2:00 pm ET)
Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, 8:30 am ET)
GDP (Q3) (Thu, 8:30 am ET)
Fed Vice Chair Bowman speaks (Thu, 9:55 am ET)
PCE index (Fri, 8:30 am ET)
Dallas Fed President Logan speaks (Fri, 9:30 am ET)
Cleveland Fed’s Hammack & Atlanta Fed’s Bostic speak (Fri, 12:00 pm ET)
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