The FOMC Decides Gold's Fate Next Week — No Pressure (week ending 6.12.26)

Monday (6.08.26): Gold $4,316.96 · Silver $68.14. The jobs report ruined everything. Friday's payrolls came in double what economists expected (172K vs. ~85K), and suddenly everyone's betting the Fed hikes rates instead of cutting them. Overnight missile exchanges between Israel and Iran sent oil higher too — normally a gold-buying signal, but inflation fears are calling the shots this week. Metals got dragged down anyway.

Tuesday (6.09.26): Gold $4,260.99 · Silver $65.31. A "wait and see" kind of day — and not in a good way. With Wednesday's CPI report looming, traders mostly just... waited, while gold kept leaking lower to a fresh two-month low. Markets are now pricing 70% odds of a rate hike by December. Silver, true to form, fell even harder.

Wednesday (6.10.26): Gold $4,071.92 · Silver $63.40. Yikes. Fresh U.S.-Iran strikes hit overnight, then May CPI landed at a blistering 4.2% — the hottest reading since 2023, almost entirely thanks to surging energy prices. Gold cracked below $4,100 for the first time since November. Silver tagged along for the ride down, sliding to a two-month low of its own.

Thursday (6.11.26): Gold $4,212.75 · Silver $67.34. Plot twist, finally. Reports surfaced that the U.S. called off planned strikes on Iran, raising hopes a truce might actually happen — and gold staged its biggest bounce in months off a six-month low. A scorching hot PPI print (+6.5% YoY) tried to spoil the party, but de-escalation vibes won out. Silver rode the wave right back up with it.

Friday (6.12.26): Gold $4,210.10 · Silver $67.03. A quiet day — gold's flat, silver down about half a percent. Oil tanked on U.S.-Iran deal hopes (Brent dipped below $85 after opening near $93) after Trump called off planned strikes and floated reopening Hormuz this weekend, though Iran says nothing's final. The catch: lower oil also eases the inflation fears that had been propping up metals, while softer yields and a strong equity rebound (S&P +1.8%, Dow +1.9%, Nasdaq +2.5%) leave gold without a clean haven bid. Next up: the latest inflation-expectations data.

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Don't Sweat $4,000 Gold — This Guy Says the Bull Market's Just Taking a Breather

The big picture
Everyone else is staring at gold's chart like it just got dumped. Thorsten Polleit — economics professor, BOOM & BUST REPORT publisher, and apparently the most zen man in precious metals — says relax. This is a correction, not a breakup. And if gold dips below $4,000? In his book, that's a discount, not a disaster.

Driving the news
Polleit told Kitco that gold's slide from its $5,500 highs was less "uh oh" and more "yeah, that tracks." Plot the price against any sane trend line, he says, and $5,500 was basically gold sprinting way ahead of itself. He figures prices could dip toward $3,900 before finding their footing — and he's already eyeing whether to buy more himself, just debating bullion vs. ETFs.

By the numbers

• $4,000 — the price Polleit says he "wouldn't mind buying at"
• ~$3,900 — his best guess for where the bleeding stops
• $5,500 — gold's recent high, which he calls overextended
• 5+ years — his investing horizon, because he's playing the long game

Why it matters
Polleit's optimism isn't about chart-reading — it's about governments being so buried in debt that central banks can't keep rates high without breaking the economy. Translation: bonds (and maybe stocks) keep losing to inflation for a long time, which is historically gold's favorite kind of weather.

What to watch
He's also calling out the Fed's playbook directly: hiking rates to fight inflation that's coming from energy prices — not money printing — is like turning up the AC to fix a gas leak. If more investors start buying that argument, it could change how the market reacts the next time hot CPI or PPI numbers roll in.

The bottom line
Could gold dip below $4,000 in the short term? Sure, Polleit isn't ruling it out. But his long-term conviction hasn't budged — if anything, he says the case for gold is stronger now than it's been in years. For anyone thinking five-plus years out, he sees today's dip as the entry price, not the exit sign.

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Gold Market Exhales on an In-Line Inflation Print

The big picture
Everyone braced for an inflation gut-punch and instead got a shrug. May's CPI landed right where economists guessed, and after weeks of inflation-fear selling, gold finally caught a small break. Not a recovery — just a breather.

Driving the news
The BLS reported Wednesday that CPI rose 0.5% in May, matching expectations, while core inflation came in even cooler than forecast at 0.2%. Gold staged a brief relief rally before settling around $4,164 — still down ~2% on the day, because "less bad than feared" doesn't undo weeks of selling.

By the numbers

• 0.5% — May CPI monthly increase, in line with estimates
• 4.2% — annual headline inflation, up from 3.8% in April
• 0.2% — core CPI monthly increase, cooler than the 0.3% expected
• 2.9% — annual core inflation, matching consensus
• 3.9% — May energy index increase, the main driver
• 60%+ — share of the monthly inflation increase from energy alone

Why it matters
Energy — supercharged by the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions — is doing nearly all the work here. Cooler core inflation gives the Fed some room to avoid sounding overly hawkish. But "not spiraling" isn't "under control" — inflation's still well above the Fed's 2% target, and rate-hike bets for later this year haven't gone away.

What to watch
Analysts are split. Some say a softer core print buys the Fed patience, especially with rising sovereign debt making hikes riskier. Others say it all hinges on the Middle East: if the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted through summer, energy inflation could spread further and force the Fed's hand. Watch next week's Fed meeting for any shift in tone.

The bottom line
This was relief, not a turnaround. Gold's bigger risks — including last week's break below its 200-day moving average — are still in play. The real story hasn't changed: as long as the Iran conflict keeps oil elevated, inflation and the Fed's next move stay a coin flip.

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Gold Slips Back Toward Lows as Wholesale Inflation Runs Hot

The big picture
Just a day after CPI gave gold a brief sigh of relief, May's producer price data came in hotter than expected and pushed prices right back toward their recent lows. The data keeps the pressure on the Fed — and on gold.

Driving the news
The Labor Department reported Thursday that headline PPI rose 1.1% in May, well above the 0.7% economists expected. Core PPI (stripping out food and energy) rose 0.4%, slightly cooler than the 0.5% forecast. Spot gold slid immediately after the 8:30 am release, last trading around $4,062, down about 0.24% on the day.

By the numbers

• 1.1% — headline PPI monthly increase, vs. 0.7% expected
• 6.5% — annual headline PPI, vs. 6.4% expected and April's 5.7%
• 0.4% — core PPI monthly increase, vs. 0.5% expected
• 4.9% — annual core PPI, in line with April's downwardly revised reading
• $4,062.04 — spot gold price, down 0.24% on the day

Why it matters
PPI is a leading indicator — when producers pay more, those costs tend to flow through to consumers later. A hot headline print on the heels of an already-elevated CPI reading narrows the Fed's options further. Analysts say the combo makes additional rate cuts harder to justify, and even keeps a rate hike on the table — a scenario that's bad news for non-yielding assets like gold.

What to watch
The bigger question is whether this is a one-off energy-driven blip or the start of a trend. With the Iran conflict still disrupting supply chains, input costs could keep climbing into the summer. Keep an eye on whether the Fed's tone shifts at next week's meeting in response to this one-two punch of inflation data.

The bottom line
Gold's brief post-CPI relief didn't last long. Hot wholesale inflation is reinforcing the same story that's dragged prices down for weeks: as long as inflation stays elevated, the Fed has less room to cut, and gold has less reason to rally.

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ECONOMIC CALENDAR

MONDAY, JUNE 15

• 8:30 am — Empire State manufacturing survey (June)
• 9:15 am — Industrial production & Capacity utilization (May)

TUESDAY, JUNE 16

• 8:30 am — Housing starts (May)
• 8:30 am — Building permits (May)

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 17

• 8:30 am — U.S. retail sales (May)
• 2:00 pm — FOMC interest-rate decision

THURSDAY, JUNE 18

• 8:30 am — Initial jobless claims (June 13)
• 8:30 am — Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (June)

FRIDAY, JUNE 19

• Juneteenth holiday, none scheduled

IMPACT ON PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

• Strong reading = regional factories humming = mild headwind for gold.
• Weak or negative reading = manufacturing under strain = tailwind for metals.

A regional snapshot, but it's the first manufacturing data out of the gate for June and can set an early tone for the week. Low to moderate impact.

Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

• Rising output and utilization = factories running hot, economy solid = mild headwind for gold.
• Falling output = production cooling off = supportive for metals.

A broad measure of how hard the economy's engines are working. When factories throttle back, it's often an early sign of slowing growth. Low to moderate impact.

Housing Starts

• Strong starts = builders confident, demand solid = mild headwind for gold.
• Weak starts = construction pulling back = supportive for metals.

Housing is sensitive to rates, so this report doubles as a read on how the economy is digesting Fed policy. Low to moderate impact.

Building Permits

• Rising permits = builders planning ahead, pipeline healthy = mild headwind for gold.
• Falling permits = builders pumping the brakes on future projects = supportive for metals.

The forward-looking cousin of housing starts — permits today are the houses (and economic activity) of tomorrow. Low impact on its own, but watched alongside starts.

U.S. Retail Sales

• Strong sales = consumers still spending freely = mild headwind for gold.
• Weak sales = consumers tightening their belts = tailwind for metals.

This is one of the clearest windows into the health of the American consumer, who drives most of the economy. A soft print here gets noticed fast. High impact.

FOMC Interest-Rate Decision

• Hawkish decision or tone = rates staying higher for longer, yields firm = rough day for gold and silver.
• Dovish decision or tone = rate cuts back on the table, real yields ease = metals rally.

This is the week's headline event. Every other report is essentially a preview of what the Fed might do or say here. Very high impact.

Initial Jobless Claims

• Claims rising = labor market softening = good for metals.
• Claims falling = job market still tight, Fed in no rush to ease = mild drag on metals.

The weekly pulse check on the job market, and especially relevant just one day after the Fed's decision — it'll either reinforce or undercut the Fed's message. Moderate impact.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey

• Strong reading = manufacturing sector holding up = mild headwind for gold.
• Weak or negative reading = factories struggling = tailwind for metals.

Another regional manufacturing gauge, often read alongside the Empire State survey as a bookend check on industrial health for the month. Moderate impact.