Monday - 10.06.25: Gold climbed higher Monday on renewed safe-haven demand, with December futures reaching a record $4,014.60 before settling at $3,999.30, up $23.50. Silver, meanwhile, fell $0.76 to $47.69 on profit-taking after hitting a 14-year high. Ongoing U.S. government shutdown, political unrest in France, and economic concerns in Japan and Argentina, along with the Russia-Ukraine war, fueled investor demand for precious metals. Analysts also noted that major industrialized nations are hoarding gold and silver, adding further upward pressure to prices.
Tuesday - 10.07.25: On Tuesday, gold surged through $4,000 and hit new highs amid safe-haven demand, fueled by expectations of Fed rate cuts and U.S. political uncertainty — spot gold traded near $3,962.63 and December futures pushed toward $3,985.30. Silver, after spiking earlier, retraced some gains and dipped about $0.65 from Monday’s highs.
Wednesday - 10.08.25: Gold and silver surged Wednesday on safe-haven demand driven by the U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical uncertainty. December gold hit a record $4,072.40, up $62.80, while silver reached a 14-year high of $49.04. The shutdown—now one of the longest in modern history—caused flight delays due to unpaid air traffic staff, hinting lawmakers may soon resolve it. Meanwhile, the Bank of England warned of overvalued stock markets, especially in AI-focused companies, citing rising risks of a sharp correction and echoing concerns from investor Paul Tudor Jones.
Thursday - 10.09.25: Gold and silver fell sharply near midday Thursday as traders took profits after recent record-setting gains — gold hit $4,030, down $41.60, and silver dropped $0.78 to $48.21. Analysts expect further profit-taking before the weekend. The metals also lost some safe-haven appeal after Israel and Hamas reached a U.S.-brokered deal to release hostages and de-escalate their two-year conflict, easing geopolitical tensions that had supported prices.
Friday - 10.10.25: Gold and silver rebounded sharply in early Friday trading, with silver leading gains after Thursday’s selloff. Prices remain volatile heading into the weekend, suggesting continued choppy action ahead. December gold rose $37.10 to $4,009.10, while silver gained $1.17 to $48.36.
Silver Surpasses $50 an Ounce for First Time Amid Geopolitical, Economic Uncertainty
The big picture
Silver prices soared past $50 an ounce on Thursday for the first time ever, driven by a global supply shortage, monetary easing expectations, and geopolitical volatility.
Spot silver briefly reached $51 before retreating to just under $49, marking the metal’s highest level since January 1980. Despite the pullback, silver has climbed 69% in 2025, fueled by investor demand for safe havens.
Driving the news
A mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors—tariffs, global debt, central bank policy shifts, and the Israel-Hamas ceasefire—is shaping precious metal markets.
- The ceasefire announcement prompted traders to take profits, causing a brief dip in both gold and silver.
- Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s rate cut last month (25 basis points) and expectations of more cuts in October and December continue to support metals as investors seek inflation hedges.
- Analysts point to ETF demand and tight physical supply as primary drivers behind the rally.
Between the lines
Independent metals trader Tai Wong told Reuters that profit-taking followed the Gaza ceasefire, but that the core bullish drivers—reserve diversification and surging global debt—remain intact.
Liquidity in London’s silver market has also thinned as ETF accumulation and metal shipments to the U.S. constrain supply.
By the numbers
- $51/oz – peak spot silver price on Thursday, a 45-year high.
- 69% – silver’s price gain so far in 2025.
- $4,000/oz – gold’s record high earlier this week before a 2% pullback.
- 148%+ – gain in silver-related ETFs like iShares Global Silver Miners (SLVP) and ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ).
- 740% – rise in the MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X ETN, 2025’s top-performing ETF.
Why it matters
The silver surge signals both investor anxiety and speculative momentum in the face of economic strain.
Metals are outperforming amid:
- Expectations of further Fed rate cuts
- Concerns over inflation drifting away from the 2% target
- Mounting sovereign debt and tariff-driven uncertainty
Silver’s unique dual role—industrial and monetary—has made it a focal point for traders balancing growth fears with inflation hedging.
Market context
Gold’s rally this year mirrors silver’s rise. Spot gold crossed $4,000/oz on Wednesday, buoyed by central bank demand, geopolitical tension, and heavy ETF inflows. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is up nearly 50% YTD, while leveraged gold mining ETFs have skyrocketed.
What to watch
Markets are pricing in two additional 25-basis-point Fed cuts this year, even as inflation pressures persist.
If cuts materialize, precious metals could stay elevated or push higher, though short-term profit-taking and volatility are likely.
Continued ETF inflows and physical shortages will determine whether silver can sustain levels above $50 or consolidate below its new historic threshold.
The bottom line
Silver’s record-breaking rally reflects a perfect storm of tight supply, rate-cut expectations, and geopolitical unease.
While the metal may cool in the near term, its long-term bullish fundamentals remain intact, suggesting silver’s climb could be more than a fleeting spike—it may be the start of a new monetary cycle for precious metals.
Gold Rally Signals Eroding Trust in U.S.
The big picture
Gold’s dramatic rise past $4,000 an ounce — its highest level ever — is unsettling some market watchers.
Typically a safe haven during crises, gold’s rally amid record stock market highs suggests something deeper: investors are quietly diversifying away from the U.S. dollar, signaling waning confidence in U.S. institutions and policy stability.
Driving the news
Gold futures hit a record high this week, up 51% year-to-date, putting the metal on pace for its best year since 1979 — another era marked by high inflation, geopolitical strife, and global uncertainty.
The rally coincides with a prolonged U.S. government shutdown and ongoing trade tensions under President Trump.
“The rest of the world sees the U.S. weaponizing economic policy tools,” warns economist Mohamed El-Erian, adding that the gold surge may signal a long-term erosion of faith in ‘what makes the U.S. special.’
What they’re saying
- “People are willing to go long U.S. enterprise, and they want to short the mess,” says El-Erian.
- “People are starting to lose trust in institutions,” adds Ryan McIntyre of Sprott, noting investors are “reassessing what they view as safe.”
- Ken Griffin (Citadel) told Bloomberg that investors want exposure to corporate America but not its sovereign risk — hence the flight to gold.
Between the lines
Gold and U.S. stocks are both rallying, but the U.S. dollar has fallen 9% this year against major currencies.
That divergence — strong equities but a weak dollar — underscores investors’ mixed faith: they trust U.S. companies’ profitability but question Washington’s fiscal discipline and global credibility.
For some, this looks less like a trade and more like slow-motion de-dollarization.
Follow the money
Several forces are fueling gold’s surge:
- Central banks are buying aggressively to diversify reserves away from the dollar.
- Speculators have piled in behind central bank buying, amplifying momentum.
- No clear alternatives: U.S. Treasuries once dominated as the go-to safe asset; now, “there’s no alternative to gold,” McIntyre says.
- Inflation, debt, and uncertainty: Persistent policy risk, heavy government debt, and inflation fears are driving investors “outside the financial system” — into gold and even bitcoin.
Yes, but
Not all experts see this as full-scale de-dollarization.
Jay Barry, global rates strategist at JPMorgan, notes that foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries remains strong, suggesting continued global confidence in dollar assets despite market jitters.
What we’re watching
Whether the Trump administration acknowledges the gold rally — and the dollar’s slide — as a potential policy concern.
If global buyers continue shifting reserves into gold, it could mark the beginning of a structural change in how the world views U.S. economic dominance.
The bottom line
The gold rally is more than just a market story — it’s a sentiment barometer.
As prices climb and the dollar weakens, investors are quietly questioning the U.S.’s financial integrity.
What began as a hedge against volatility now looks like a vote of no confidence in the American system itself.
The 22 States Close to (or in) Recession
The big picture
A new analysis by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, shows that 22 U.S. states are either in recession or teetering on the edge. Together, they account for roughly one-third of national GDP.
Their slowdowns are tied to sluggish immigration, rising tariffs, and federal job cuts.
Driving the news
Zandi’s study, based on data through August, mimics how the NBER determines recessions—tracking jobs, industrial output, personal income, and housing starts.
He adjusted results using additional indicators like credit delinquencies, port traffic, and migration data.
States with negative readings fell into the “recession” group; others were labeled “expanding” or “treading water.”
Between the lines
The index is subjective—Zandi alone made the calls—though it’s patterned after the NBER’s recession process.
Despite state-level weakness, the national economy remains out of recession and unemployment remains relatively low.
By the numbers
- 22 states: either contracting or near contraction
- ⅓ of GDP: combined share of those states
- 6%: August jobless rate in Washington, D.C., the highest in the nation
- 5.5%: California’s August unemployment rate, second-highest
- 4.3%: U.S. average unemployment in August
Why it matters
The hardest-hit states lean on agriculture and manufacturing, which are vulnerable to tariffs.
The immigration slowdown also constrains growth.
Federal job cuts hurt regions like Virginia and Maryland, both home to many government workers.
Also on the list
- Iowa, Kansas, South Dakota – agricultural exposure
- Georgia, Illinois, Oregon – manufacturing-heavy economies
- Virginia, Maryland, D.C. – impacted by federal employment reductions
States holding up: Texas and Florida, buoyed by strong population growth.
What to watch
New York and California—both “treading water”—could tip the balance for the U.S. economy.
Their wealthy households are benefiting from the stock market boom, temporarily cushioning job softness.
“If New York and California turn down,” warns Zandi, “the nation’s going into recession.”
The bottom line
The U.S. economy isn’t officially in a recession—but, as Zandi puts it, “it’s pretty darn close.”
NEXT WEEK’S KEY EVENTS
Economic Calendar: October 13 – 17, 2025 (ET)
* Government data subject to delay if government shutdown continues
MONDAY, Oct 13
Columbus Day holiday — none scheduled
TUESDAY, Oct 14
- 8:45 am Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks
- 3:25 pm Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks
- 3:30 pm Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks
WEDNESDAY, Oct 15
- 8:30 am Consumer Price Index (Sept.) *
- 8:30 am Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct.)
- 12:10 pm Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks
THURSDAY, Oct 16
- 8:00 am Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks
- 8:30 am U.S. Retail Sales (Sept.) *
- 8:30 am Producer Price Index (Sept.) *
- 8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 11) *
- 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Oct.)
- 9:00 am Fed Governor Stephen Miran speaks
- 12:45 pm Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks
- 4:30 pm Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks
FRIDAY, Oct 17
- 8:30 am Housing Starts & Permits (Sept.)
- 9:15 am Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Sept.)
IMPACT ON PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS
Consumer Price Index (Wed, 8:30 AM ET)
- Rising CPI → signals inflationary pressure, strengthens the case for tighter Fed policy; bearish for gold/silver due to higher real yields.
- Falling CPI → points to easing inflation and possible rate cuts; bullish for metals as yields and dollar soften.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Wed, 8:30 AM ET)
- Strong reading → supports growth optimism, risk-on tone; bearish for metals.
- Weak reading → hints at manufacturing slowdown and broader weakness; bullish for safe-haven demand.
U.S. Retail Sales (Thu, 8:30 AM ET)
- Higher sales → shows resilient consumer demand, pushes yields higher, bearish for metals.
- Lower sales → suggests cooling spending and economic fatigue, bullish for gold/silver.
Producer Price Index (Thu, 8:30 AM ET)
- Hot PPI → wholesale-price inflation may trigger Fed hawkishness, bearish for metals.
- Soft PPI → easing price pressures reduce tightening risk, bullish for metals.
Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, 8:30 AM ET)
- Rising claims → labor-market weakness boosts safe-haven appeal, bullish for metals.
- Falling claims → supports “higher-for-longer” outlook, bearish for metals.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Thu, 8:30 AM ET)
- Improvement → stronger business conditions and sentiment, bearish for metals.
- Deterioration → slower activity or contraction, bullish for safe-havens.
Housing Starts & Permits (Fri, 8:30 AM ET)
- Stronger housing data → signals economic resilience, bearish for metals.
- Weaker housing → reflects tightening financial conditions, bullish for metals.
Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Fri, 9:15 AM ET)
- High or rising output → adds to inflation and growth optimism, bearish for metals.
- Falling production/utilization → points to slowdown, bullish for gold/silver.
Fed Speakers (Tue – Thu)
- Hawkish tone → emphasizes inflation fight and policy discipline, bearish for metals.
- Dovish tone → suggests flexibility or openness to easing, bullish for safe-havens.
