Monday - 10.20.25: Gold and silver surged in midday Monday trade on corrective bounces after Friday’s selloff, with bargain hunters stepping in despite extreme day-to-day volatility that hints at a climaxing phase—or at least a choppy, whipsaw-prone stretch ahead; December gold rose $150.00 to $4,363.90 and December silver gained $1.316 to $51.40. Risk sentiment improved as President Trump moved to ease U.S.–China trade tensions after bank-credit jitters, yet safe-haven interest held up; a 20-day U.S. government shutdown and the resulting data blackout added bullish uncertainty for metals, while global stocks and U.S. indexes traded higher.
Tuesday - 10.21.25: Gold and silver plunged near midday Tuesday amid panic long liquidation and margin-call selling by short-term speculators, compounded by a broader risk-on mood as U.S. stock indexes neared record highs; December gold fell $215.00 to $4,143.00 and December silver dropped $3.50 to $47.85. The retreat followed Monday’s bargain hunting that briefly pushed gold futures to a record $4,398.00, but the surge in day-to-day volatility now looks extreme—often a sign of a climaxing phase—and has begun spilling into other futures, with traders invoking the adage “if you can’t sell what you want, sell what you can,” as losses in metals nudged some selling in grains.
Wednesday - 10.22.25: Gold fell sharply in midday U.S. trading Wednesday on follow-through selling and a broader risk-on tone, with December gold down $56.00 to $4,052.00, while silver steadied—December silver up $0.191 to $47.88—but bulls aren’t in the clear. The outlook pivots on silver’s $50.00 threshold: the author upgrades his timing metaphor to the “ninth inning with two outs,” noting that in the past 50 years silver has only held above $50 briefly; staying above it for two weeks would signal a new, higher trading regime for both metals, while slipping back below would argue for extended corrections or even bear markets. For now, reclaiming $50 looks difficult, making the rest of this week’s tape action especially important for the path ahead.
Thursday - 10.23.25: Gold and silver jumped sharply in midday U.S. trading Thursday on corrective rebounds and bargain hunting after heavy selling, though persistent high volatility is a headwind for bulls; December gold rose $90.50 to $4,156.50 and December silver gained $1.259 to $48.94. Meanwhile, London spot platinum surged as much as 6.4% to $1,646.03, with the spot premium over futures widening to $53.45 from $28, signaling a scramble for physical supply; TD Securities’ Dan Ghali said the market is tightening with dislocations reaching extremes, echoing fears of another silver-squeeze moment.
Friday - 10.24.25: Gold and silver slumped in early U.S. trading Friday—December gold −$73 to $4,072 and December silver −$1.034 to $47.665—amid extreme volatility, bear-flag setups, and stronger risk appetite with U.S. indexes near records. Overnight, Trump said he’s terminating U.S.–Canada trade talks after an Ontario-funded anti-tariff ad using Reagan’s remarks. The September CPI showed a 0.3% increase from the previous month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3%, both of which are lower than expected.
Gold and silver reset: no longer overbought, still under-owned
The big picture
Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen says the sharp pullback in precious metals was a long-overdue reset after a powerful, technically stretched rally. Despite steeper losses in silver—amplified by thinner liquidity—both metals remain under-owned in portfolios and their structural bull drivers are intact.
Driving the news
Hansen argues that a mix of factors primed the reversal: a risk-on turn in equities, a firmer dollar, and seasonal dynamics around Diwali—where strong pre-Diwali buying gave way to softer post-holiday physical demand from Asia. Technically, gold’s three failed attempts to break above ~$4,380 flipped trader psychology from greed to protection, triggering a crowded exit by leveraged participants. The selloff exposed the liquidity gap—silver’s market depth is roughly one-ninth of gold’s—magnifying both the ascent and the decline. Prices briefly extended the drop before bouncing in the Asian session, with silver finding support near ~$47.80 and gold buyers reappearing just above ~$4,000. Hansen frames the move as healthy: it reduces bubble risk now rather than later.
By the numbers
- 9 weeks: preceding rally length.
- +31% / +45%: gold / silver gains during that run.
- ~$4,380: gold ceiling tested three times before sentiment turned.
- ~$4,000: area where gold dip-buyers emerged.
- ~$47.80: silver support zone on the rebound.
- ~9×: gold’s liquidity vs. silver’s, per Hansen.
Why it matters
Positioning had become one-sided; the correction resets risk and invites longer-horizon buyers back into a market Hansen still views as structurally supported. The under-ownership theme suggests room for allocation increases if macro supports—real-yield dynamics, geopolitical risk, and central-bank demand—reassert themselves. Silver’s thinner liquidity remains a double-edged sword: it can turbocharge upside squeezes as easily as downside air-pockets.
What to watch
Hansen highlights the U.S. Section 232 probe into critical-mineral imports (including silver, platinum, and palladium) as a near-term swing factor. A no-tariff outcome could ease London tightness by freeing U.S. metal to flow to Europe, narrowing London-over-COMEX premiums and normalizing one-month lease rates. New tariffs, by contrast, could semi-strand U.S. metal, intensify scarcity in London, lift COMEX premiums, and spark a squeeze-driven retest—or break—of recent highs. He also flags upcoming Trump–Xi and Trump–Putin meetings (if they occur) as risk events for the duration of the setback.
The bottom line
In Hansen’s view, gold and silver just had the correction they needed: they’re no longer overbought, still under-owned, and—after a cleanse of froth—remain on a bullish track into 2026 if the structural drivers that powered this year’s surge persist.
When the cloud hiccups: what a major AWS outage revealed
The big picture
An AWS outage rippled across banks, brokerages, and everyday apps, underscoring how dependent modern finance and daily life have become on a single cloud backbone. From account access at big banks to trading halts and streaming blackouts, one provider’s downtime cascaded into a broad, costly standstill—reviving questions about concentration risk and resilience just as Big Tech deepens ties with finance.
Driving the news
Customers at major banks such as Capital One and JPMorgan Chase were locked out of accounts, while trading platforms including Robinhood and Coinbase stalled during active market hours. A wider slowdown hit email and connectivity because AWS underpins a large share of internet services; knock-on effects reached Venmo, Fortnite, and Disney+. This episode also connects to Amazon’s growing role in banking—ongoing outreach to depositors and efforts to onboard younger Americans via wallets, data analytics, and ledger technologies—suggesting that cloud dominance plus fintech expansion can magnify systemic risk. Banks’ terms of service commonly disclaim liability for third-party failures, which means outages can strand consumers without recourse. Against a backdrop of a nationwide “digital financial framework” slated for Nov. 22, some observers frame a “perfect storm” of centralization, AI-driven fraud, and cloud exposure—and point to physical gold and silver as outage-proof, tamper-resistant hedges.
By the numbers
- ~50%: share of the internet’s “backbone” often attributed to AWS.
- 2 mega-banks named: JPMorgan Chase and Capital One cited for access issues.
- 2 trading platforms: Robinhood and Coinbase highlighted for halted activity.
- Nov. 22: date referenced for a nationwide U.S. “digital financial framework.”
- $25,000: suggested starter allocation into physical precious metals.
Why it matters
Single-vendor concentration means a technical fault or misconfiguration can ripple across payment rails, brokerage execution, and basic communications at once. If banks’ fine print shields them from outages caused by third parties, consumers shoulder the downtime risk precisely when they need access most. Pair that with concerns about deeper Big Tech–finance integration and AI-assisted fraud, and resilience shifts from a back-office issue to a front-page consumer risk. The case for owning physical metals rests on the idea that tangible assets don’t depend on cloud uptime, identity verification flows, or network availability.
What to watch
Expect renewed scrutiny of cloud concentration, including multi-cloud failovers, on-prem hot backups, and incident transparency. Regulators may revisit operational-resilience standards for critical third-party service providers and how liability is apportioned between banks, fintechs, and cloud vendors. On the consumer side, pressure could build for clearer outage disclosures, faster remediation, and contingency access to funds. If a new digital framework rolls out, watch how data custody, surveillance concerns, and offline fallbacks are addressed—and whether institutions diversify beyond a single cloud.
The bottom line
This was a stress test for the “everything-on-one-cloud” era: convenient when it works, system-wide when it doesn’t. If finance keeps centralizing its digital plumbing, households and markets need sturdier Plan B’s, whether that’s multi-cloud architecture—or a sleeve of analog insurance in the form of physical gold and silver.
What the global elite misread about Trumponomics
The big picture
Six months ago, top finance officials feared Trump’s tariffs and policy uncertainty would stall global growth. Instead, the world economy has largely absorbed the tariff shock, even as officials still warn of lingering inflation risks and acknowledge that more effects could surface later.
Driving the news
Citigroup’s Nathan Sheets says policymakers misjudged the speed of tariff pass-through to real activity; pricing cycles are more gradual, with firms typically resetting prices on seasonal or annual schedules. That cadence has shielded customers so far, but it could shift in 2026 as contracts roll. Meanwhile, IMF director Kristalina Georgieva argues that a true “trade war” never materialized because most countries chose not to retaliate against the U.S. policy shift. At the same time, AI investment is supporting growth while potentially dampening hiring.
By the numbers
- 6 months: shift from widespread alarm to guarded optimism.
- 2026: potential window when delayed tariff pass-through could bite.
- 1 major trend: broad global non-retaliation to U.S. tariff actions.
Why it matters
The mood among economic policy elites has brightened: so far, the global economy is adjusting to the Trump era’s trade dynamics better than expected. But delayed pass-through means inflation pressures may arrive in stages, and firms that have absorbed costs could later defend margins via price hikes or cost cuts—implications that may weigh on consumers and the labor market.
What to watch
Upcoming seasonal and annual price resets that could reveal more tariff pass-through; signs of labor-market softness if companies continue trimming costs to protect profitability; and whether non-U.S. governments maintain their non-retaliatory posture or pivot to targeted responses as the landscape evolves. The balance between AI-driven productivity gains and employment effects also remains a key variable.
The bottom line
Financial markets—and, to a lesser extent, the broader economy—are granting the Trump administration more latitude than many expected in April. U.S. investors may be acclimating to the administration’s operating style, but that approach doesn’t always translate cleanly across borders.
NEXT WEEK’S KEY EVENTS
Economic Calendar: October 27 – 31, 2025 (ET)
MONDAY, Oct 27
- None scheduled
TUESDAY, Oct 28
- 9:00 am — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 cities) (Aug.)
- 10:00 am — Consumer Confidence (Oct.)
WEDNESDAY, Oct 29
- 10:00 am — Pending Home Sales (Sept.)
- 2:00 pm — FOMC interest-rate decision
THURSDAY, Oct 30
- 8:30 am — *Initial Jobless Claims (Oct. 25)
- 8:30 am — GDP (Q3)
- 9:55 am — Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks
FRIDAY, Oct 31
- 8:30 am — *PCE index (Sept.)
- 9:30 am — Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks
- 12:00 pm — Cleveland Fed President Hammack and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speak
Government data subject to delay if shutdown continues.
IMPACT ON PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS
S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (Tue, 9:00 am ET)
- Rising prices → wealth effect and housing firmness; risk-on tone, bearish for metals.
- Slowing or falling YoY → cooling housing signal; bullish for safe-haven metals.
Consumer Confidence (Tue, 10:00 am ET)
- Higher confidence → stronger spending outlook, yields/dollar support; bearish for metals.
- Lower confidence → demand concerns, risk-off; bullish for gold/silver.
Pending Home Sales (Wed, 10:00 am ET)
- Strong print → housing momentum, growth optimism; bearish for metals.
- Weak print → housing drag and slowdown risks; bullish for metals.
FOMC interest-rate decision (Wed, 2:00 pm ET)
- Hawkish hold/hike → higher-for-longer rates, real yields up; bearish for metals.
- Dovish hold/cut → easing path and yields down; bullish for safe-haven metals.
Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, 8:30 am ET)
- Rising claims → labor softening; bullish for gold/silver.
- Falling claims → supports higher-for-longer rates; bearish for metals.
GDP (Q3) (Thu, 8:30 am ET)
- Above-trend/strong → resilience and higher-for-longer bias; bearish for metals.
- Below expectations/weak → slowdown concerns; bullish for safe-haven metals.
Fed Vice Chair Bowman speaks (Thu, 9:55 am ET)
- Hawkish rhetoric → yields/dollar support; bearish for metals.
- Dovish or cautionary tone → policy-easing hopes; bullish for gold/silver.
PCE index (Fri, 8:30 am ET)
- Hot/sticky core → real yields up, tighter policy odds; bearish for metals.
- Soft/disinflation → easing price pressure/rate-cut hopes; bullish for metals.
Dallas Fed President Logan speaks (Fri, 9:30 am ET)
- Hawkish tone → higher-for-longer narrative; bearish for metals.
- Dovish/financial-stability focus → risk-off tailwind; bullish for safe-haven metals.
Cleveland Fed’s Hammack & Atlanta Fed’s Bostic speak (Fri, 12:00 pm ET)
- Hawkish emphasis → supports dollar and real yields; bearish for metals.
- Dovish tilt → loosens rate path expectations; bullish for gold/silver.
