Monday - 11.10.25: Gold and silver jumped sharply Monday, with gold hitting a two-week high and silver a three-week peak as expectations of a government reopening boosted hopes for a December Fed rate cut. December gold rose $91.10 to $4,100.70 and silver gained $1.71 to $49.85, with traders watching the $50 level as a trigger for new record-high momentum. The Senate advanced a shutdown-ending bill 60–40, though House passage remains uncertain. Delayed CPI and jobs data may complicate the Fed’s December meeting, with Bloomberg noting the BLS likely can’t process both October and November reports even if the government reopens.
Tuesday - 11.11.25: Gold pulled back from three-week highs as traders took profits, while silver held modest gains. By midday, December gold was down $8.90 to $4,113.10 and silver was up $0.23 to $50.54. Metals remain supported by expectations that the 43-day shutdown is nearing its end, which would release delayed economic data and strengthen the case for a December Fed cut. Gold is still on track for its best year since 1979, and sentiment improved further after the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.2, signaling softer economic conditions that typically favor metals.
Wednesday - 11.12.25: Gold and silver surged Wednesday, both hitting three-week highs, with silver nearing its record as bullish momentum pulled in speculators. December gold climbed $73.80 to $4,189.00 and silver rose $2.11 to $52.86. Hopes of a government reopening within 24 hours added fuel, as resumed data releases could help justify a December Fed cut. The House returned to vote on the shutdown-ending bill, which Speaker Mike Johnson expects to pass despite internal GOP and Democratic pushback.
Thursday - 11.13.25: Gold and silver eased slightly Thursday after strong gains that sent silver to a record high and gold to a three-week peak overnight. December gold slipped $5.90 to $4,207.70 and silver dipped $0.44 to $53.02, though both remain technically bullish, with silver still up about 12% on the week. Silver’s rally has been supported by supply concerns tied to India’s wedding season, potential U.S. tariffs, and its addition to the Interior Department’s critical minerals list. President Trump has now signed the shutdown-ending bill, though agencies may take weeks to return to full operations.
Friday - 11.14.25:.Gold and silver slumped Friday as fading hopes for a December Fed rate cut and heavy futures profit-taking pressured both metals, while U.S. stocks extended Thursday’s slide after hawkish Fed comments dented this week’s reopening-driven rally and pushed rate-cut odds below 50%. Fed officials warned policy must stay cautious and “somewhat restrictive,” stoking fears that expensive valuations need lower rates to hold.
U.S. debt fears replace shutdown drama as gold trades around $4,200
The big picture
The 43-day shutdown is over, but gold remains strong around $4,200 as attention shifts from political drama to a deeper concern: the United States’ rapidly expanding and increasingly unsustainable debt load.
Driving the news
Gold is recovering sharply from last month’s selloff amid worries over aggressive new spending moves from President Trump, including tariff-funded $2,000 checks, $10,000 bonuses for air traffic controllers, and a proposed 50-year mortgage program.
Analyst Nicky Shiels warns these policies amount to early stimulus ahead of midterms while worsening the fiscal outlook.
Weak demand at recent 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions highlights growing difficulty in selling U.S. debt, and Shiels says ultra-long mortgages could foreshadow ultra-long Treasury bonds designed to stretch borrowing further.
By the numbers
- $4,200: spot gold support.
• 43 days: length of the shutdown.
• 2 weak Treasury auctions: 10-yr and 30-yr.
• Nearly 2×: interest costs on a 50-year mortgage vs. a 30-year.
• Nov ’26: political horizon driving fiscal strategy.
Why it matters
Rising deficits, soft Treasury demand, and costly policy proposals pose growing risks to U.S. fiscal stability. That mix improves the long-term case for gold and silver as hedges against political uncertainty and potential dollar weakness.
What to watch
- Whether weak Treasury demand becomes persistent.
• Market reaction to Trump’s stimulus-style proposals.
• Signs of worsening fiscal strain ahead of 2026.
• A possible year-end metals rally fueled by debt concerns.
The bottom line
With the shutdown behind it, Washington now faces a larger problem: mounting debt. Gold is benefiting from the uncertainty—and could keep climbing if fiscal pressures intensify.
Analysts: Gold’s price correction is the calm before a $5,200 run
The big picture
Gold’s pause near $4,000 appears less like a slowdown and more like a launch point, with analysts arguing the metal is entering a parabolic phase that could propel it quickly toward $5,000–$5,200.
Driving the news
Technical strategist Chris Vermeilan says gold is primed for a multi-stage rally—first to $4,700, then $5,000, and ultimately $5,100–$5,200—as consolidation ends. He describes gold’s setup as “parabolic,” with monthly candles capable of stacking quickly.
Analyst Rashad Hajiyev echoes the bullish outlook, forecasting a two-leg move toward $4.9K–$5K, alongside silver targets of $64 and $85 as the gold-to-silver ratio hits key support. Gold has already rebounded from $3,900 to reclaim the $4,000 level and rebuild momentum.
By the numbers
- $4,000+: current trading zone.
• $4,700: first upside level.
• $5,000: expected swift breakout.
• $5,100–$5,200: full target range.
• $64 → $85: silver’s projected path.
• 25%: distance from current prices to $5K.
Why it matters
A true parabolic phase could send gold sharply higher in a short timeframe, especially with macro tailwinds like softening U.S. data, deficit worries, and strong central-bank demand. Silver, typically more explosive, could amplify the move if key ratio levels break.
What to watch
- A clean break above $4,700.
• Volume and momentum confirming parabolic action.
• Silver’s response as GSR levels tighten.
• Fed policy signals and upcoming U.S. data.
• Evidence the consolidation phase is ending.
The bottom line
Analysts see gold’s lull as stored energy. If the setup holds, the run from $4,000 to $5,000 could unfold far faster than traders expect—potentially marking a defining move for both gold and silver.
No Winners in Washington: How a 43-Day Shutdown Ended in Frustration
The big picture
The longest shutdown in U.S. history has ended, but neither party came away satisfied. Democrats failed to secure the ACA subsidy extension they demanded, Republicans absorbed political damage despite holding power, and millions of Americans suffered from missed paychecks, flight disruptions, and halted food assistance.
Driving the news
President Trump signed a bipartisan funding bill that restores key programs—food aid, veterans services, and the legislative branch—while extending all other funding through January.
The shutdown began after Democrats insisted on extending enhanced ACA tax credits set to expire in December, warning premiums could double and millions could lose coverage. Republicans refused to negotiate until the government reopened, offering only a December vote many Democrats viewed as symbolic.
Internal tensions rose on both sides: progressives pressured Democratic leaders to take a tougher line, while Republicans bypassed Schumer by striking a deal with eight Democrats. Daily press briefings from both parties fueled the blame game.
By the numbers
- 43 days: shutdown duration.
• 200,000+: federal employees who left government during Trump’s second term.
• $11B: estimated permanent economic hit.
• 60%: Americans blaming Trump/GOP heavily.
• 54%: Americans also blaming Democrats.
• 2 million: projected to lose insurance if ACA credits expire.
Why it matters
The shutdown exposed serious system-wide dysfunction. It disrupted food aid, strained federal agencies, and damaged public trust in Washington’s ability to govern. Politically, both parties took hits, but Republicans felt sharper backlash. Internationally, the episode signaled instability to allies and adversaries, raising doubts about U.S. reliability.
What to watch
- Whether Congress finishes full-year funding before the January deadline.
• The December vote on ACA tax credits.
• Political fallout heading toward 2026.
• Agency recovery from staffing losses and backlogs.
• Trump’s potential push to eliminate the Senate filibuster.
The bottom line
The shutdown may be over, but the underlying divisions remain. With both parties weakened and public confidence shaken, Washington could be headed for more standoffs unless lawmakers find a way to work together.
NEXT WEEK’S KEY EVENTS
Economic Calendar: November 17 – 21, 2025 (ET)
MONDAY, Nov 17
• 8:30 am — Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct.)
• 1:00 pm — Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks
TUESDAY, Nov 18
• 9:15 am — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Oct.)
WEDNESDAY, Nov 19
• 8:30 am — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Nov.)
• 8:30 am — Housing Starts & Building Permits (Oct.)
• 2:00 pm — Minutes of Fed’s October FOMC meeting
THURSDAY, Nov 20
• 8:30 am — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 15)
• 10:00 am — Existing Home Sales (Oct.)
• 10:00 am — U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (Oct.)
• 1:40 pm — Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks
• 6:45 pm — Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson speaks
FRIDAY, Nov 21
• 9:00 am — Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks
• 9:45 am — S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI (Nov.)
• 9:45 am — S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)
• 10:00 am — Consumer Sentiment (final) (Nov.)
Subject to delay due to government shutdown
NA = Not available due to government shutdown
IMPACT ON PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Mon, 8:30 am ET)
• Strong reading → signals activity rebound; supports yields/dollar; bearish for metals.
• Weak contraction → growth softness, easing sentiment; bullish for gold/silver.
Subject to delay.
Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Tue, 9:15 am ET)
• Firm output/utilization gains → economic resilience, higher-for-longer bias; bearish for metals.
• Soft production/utilization drop → cooling activity, easing pressure; bullish for gold/silver.
Subject to delay.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Wed, 8:30 am ET)
• Strong headline/new orders → supports risk appetite and yields; bearish for metals.
• Weak or contracting survey → signals industrial slowdown; bullish for gold/silver.
Subject to delay.
Housing Starts & Building Permits (Wed, 8:30 am ET)
• Strong starts/permits → growth tone intact, yields supported; bearish for metals.
• Weak starts/permits → housing drag on economy; bullish for gold/silver.
Subject to delay.
Minutes of Fed’s October FOMC Meeting (Wed, 2:00 pm ET)
• Hawkish tone (inflation persistence, reluctance to cut) → real yields/dollar up; bearish for metals.
• Dovish tilt (growth risks, easing discussions) → boosts Fed-cut expectations; bullish for gold/silver.
Subject to delay.
Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, 8:30 am ET)
• Rising claims → labor cooling; bullish for gold/silver.
• Falling claims → supports higher-for-longer rates; bearish for metals.
Subject to delay.
Existing Home Sales (Thu, 10:00 am ET)
• Strong sales → demand resilience, supports yields/dollar; bearish for metals.
• Weak/declining sales → housing weakness → dovish tilt; bullish for gold/silver.
Subject to delay.
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (Thu, 10:00 am ET)
• Upward LEI print → future growth strength, reduced easing probability; bearish for metals.
• Decline or negative trend → recession signal, easing expectations; bullish for gold/silver.
Subject to delay.
Federal Reserve Speakers (Nov 17–21)
• Hawkish or “higher-for-longer” tone (Kashkari, Goolsbee, Paulson, Logan) → strengthens real yields/dollar; bearish for metals.
• Dovish or growth-risk emphasis → boosts easing expectations; bullish for gold and silver.
• Market focus: comments on future cut timing, balance-sheet strategy, or financial-stability concerns.
S&P Flash U.S. PMIs — Services & Manufacturing (Fri, 9:45 am ET)
• Strong PMI beats → activity resilience, supports dollar/yields; bearish for metals.
• Weak PMIs or contraction → economic weakening, easing tilt; bullish for gold/silver.
Subject to delay.
Consumer Sentiment (Final) (Fri, 10:00 am ET)
• Rising sentiment/inflation expectations → supports yields/dollar; bearish for metals.
• Falling sentiment/declining inflation expectations → risk-off & easing hopes; bullish for gold/silver.
Subject to delay.
