Thanksgiving Gold Silver Surge: Weekly Market Overview
Precious metals are heading into the holidays with powerful momentum, as gold and silver continue to climb on a wave of supportive economic data, easing rate expectations, and growing safe-haven demand. What began as a steady Thanksgiving-week advance has now evolved into a broader rally, with both metals flashing renewed strength just as markets brace for a pivotal December. Against a backdrop of cooling inflation, a softening dollar, and shifting global currents, gold and silver appear poised for an encouraging finish to the year.
Monday - 11.24.25: Gold and silver edged higher in subdued midday U.S. trading Monday as markets kicked off a holiday-shortened week in wait-and-see mode, with December gold up $16.60 at $4,096.20 and December silver higher by $0.342 at $50.245. Attention is firmly on a heavy midweek data dump, led Tuesday by retail sales, producer prices, pending home sales, consumer confidence, and the Richmond Fed survey, followed Wednesday by jobless claims, durable goods, GDP revisions, income and inflation data, energy inventories, and the Beige Book from the Federal Reserve—a lineup that could set the tone for rates and precious metals heading into the holiday break.
Tuesday - 11.25.25: Gold and silver jumped in midday U.S. trading Tuesday on a mixed run of economic data, with December gold up $41.30 at $4,135.80 and December silver higher by $0.409 at $50.75. Retail sales rose a softer-than-expected 0.2% in September, producer prices rebounded 0.3%, business inventories were flat, and pending home sales surprised to the upside with a 1.9% gain. Meanwhile, private employers shed an average 13,500 jobs per week in early November, the Fifth District services survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond slipped into contraction, and consumer confidence missed at 88.7. Attention now shifts to Wednesday’s packed slate—including jobless claims, GDP revisions, income and inflation data, and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book—for the next cue on rates and metals.
Wednesday - 11.26.25: Gold and silver pushed higher in subdued pre-holiday trading Wednesday as markets worked through a mixed batch of U.S. data, with December gold up $25.10 at $4,165.40 and December silver up $1.75 at $52.705. Jobless claims fell to 216,000—near nine-month lows—while the Chicago Business Barometer slumped deeper into contraction at 36.3, even as durable-goods orders posted a solid 0.5% gain. Despite the cross-currents, none of the data meaningfully shifted expectations for the Federal Reserve, with traders still pricing roughly 80% odds of a December rate cut—momentum reinforced by recent remarks from John Williams and Mary Daly, and by softening economic tone flagged by Jerome Powell’s camp, according to Bloomberg.
Thursday - 11.27.25: Gold and silver were strutting higher Wednesday as traders chewed through a data dump and then mentally checked out early for Thanksgiving—because nothing says “thin holiday trading” like shiny metal strength. December gold climbed $25.10 to $4,165.40, while silver jumped $1.75 to $52.705. The data itself was a mixed bag: jobless claims dropped to 216,000 (lowest since February), Chicago’s business gauge sank deeper into contraction at 36.3, and durable-goods orders ticked up 0.5%—but none of it seriously shook rate expectations. Markets are still betting on a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve with about 80% odds, helped by dovish vibes from Fed officials and reported by Bloomberg. Add in chatter that Kevin Hassett could be the next Fed chair—seen as friendlier to rate cuts—and you’ve got a cocktail that bullion traders clearly liked.
Friday - 11.28.25: Gold and silver were ripping higher early Friday—silver flirting with record highs—as technical traders piled in and a surprise tech meltdown at CME Group threw global markets into temporary chaos. February gold jumped $34.80 to $4,200, while March silver surged $1.224 to $54.14, just as futures trading was halted for hours due to an overheated Chicago-area data center, according to Bloomberg, with CNBC reporting markets would reopen shortly. Traders were essentially flying blind without Globex prices, adding to the drama. Meanwhile, overseas, Vladimir Putin said there’s still no finalized peace plan for Ukraine but hinted that proposals tied to Donald Trump could form the basis for future talks—another dose of geopolitical uncertainty that only fuels bullion’s safe-haven swagger.
Falling rates, weaker dollar, and crypto pullback could propel gold’s next leg higher
The big picture
Falling interest rates, a softening U.S. dollar, and waning momentum in crypto and AI-led equities are creating what Wells Fargo Investment Institute sees as a powerful setup for gold’s next major advance.
Driving the news
In an interview with Kitco News, Sameer Samana, head of Global Equities and Real Assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said gold’s multi-year uptrend remains intact despite recent consolidation. He expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates soon, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and put pressure on the U.S. dollar. Samana said the dollar’s failure to mount a meaningful recovery after its sharp decline signals limited upside ahead. He also argued that global investors are increasingly searching for diversification as inflation remains elevated and traditional stock-bond correlations break down. Meanwhile, formerly strong competitors to gold—AI-driven equities and crypto assets such as Bitcoin—have lost momentum, while gold has quietly outperformed stocks on a relative basis for several years.
By the numbers
- ~15%: Prior decline in the U.S. dollar index from its peak.
• 3%–4%: Scale of the dollar’s rebound since that drop.
• 3%: Approximate inflation rate as the Fed considers rate cuts.
• Late 2021: Peak in relative performance of the S&P 500 measured in gold terms.
• 5%–10%: Expected magnitude of any secondary equity-market pullback.
Why it matters
If rate cuts coincide with sticky inflation and weakening confidence in equities, gold could regain its role as a primary portfolio diversifier just as bonds lose effectiveness as a hedge.
What to watch
- Federal Reserve rate-cut timing and forward guidance.
• Real interest-rate trends.
• Directional momentum in the U.S. dollar.
• Flows out of AI-linked equities and crypto markets.
• Central-bank gold purchases tied to de-dollarization.
The bottom line
Wells Fargo’s Samana sees gold as a structural beneficiary of falling rates, persistent inflation, dollar weakness, and shifting diversification needs—setting the stage for the metal’s next sustained advance.
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Nearly 1 in 4 American households living paycheck to paycheck, report reveals
The big picture
Nearly a quarter of U.S. households are now spending almost all of their income on basic necessities as inflation continues to outpace wage growth — with lower-income families bearing the greatest strain, according to new data from the Bank of America Institute.
Driving the news
The Bank of America Institute estimates that nearly 24% of U.S. households are living paycheck to paycheck so far in 2025, up slightly from 2024, though the rate of increase has slowed. The report defines paycheck-to-paycheck living as spending more than 95% of income on essentials like housing, food, utilities, transportation, internet, and childcare. Economist Joe Wadford said rising prices are hitting lower-income households hardest as inflation has grown faster than their after-tax wages since January 2025. While middle- and higher-income households have seen little change in financial stress, lower-income families are struggling with a widening gap between wages and living costs. Among higher-income households, about 19% still live paycheck to paycheck, largely due to lifestyle-related spending rather than rising prices.
By the numbers
- Nearly 24%: Share of U.S. households living paycheck to paycheck in 2025.
• 29%: Lower-income households now living paycheck to paycheck, up from 27.1% in 2023.
• 19%: Higher-income households living paycheck to paycheck.
• 1% vs. 3%: Recent wage growth compared with inflation, respectively.
• Highest since 2016: Gap between high- and low-income wage growth.
Why it matters
If inflation continues to outpace wage growth for lower-income workers, household financial stress could deepen further, reinforcing a two-speed economy where financial stability increasingly depends on income tier.
What to watch
- Inflation trends relative to wage growth.
• Shifts in lower-income employment and hours worked.
• Consumer spending patterns on essentials versus discretionary items.
• Credit usage and delinquency rates among lower-income households.
• Labor-market cooling across income groups.
The bottom line
The Bank of America Institute finds that while the growth in paycheck-to-paycheck living has slowed, financial pressure remains entrenched for lower-income Americans as inflation continues to outstrip wage gains.
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Sanctions on BRICS will lead to turbulence in the U.S. economy
The big picture
Renewed U.S. sanctions on BRICS members—particularly targeting energy trade—are reshaping global oil flows and may boomerang back onto the U.S. economy through higher energy costs, supply tightness, and geopolitical retaliation.
Driving the news
The U.S. has tightened sanctions on Russia and moved to block its BRICS partners from purchasing sanctioned crude, forcing countries such as India, China, and Brazil to source oil elsewhere. As a result, India’s state-run refiners have signed new oil procurement deals with U.S. firms. The CEO of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, warned that expanded sanctions on BRICS nations will ultimately destabilize Western economies, arguing that BRICS economies are growing while U.S. GDP is slowing. He said continued sanctions against Russia, China, and Iran will accelerate the next Western economic crisis and intensify global resentment toward the U.S. and its allies. The sanctions campaign has also drawn political backing from Donald Trump, who has labeled BRICS “anti-American” over its de-dollarization drive and threatened higher tariffs if members continue sidelining the U.S. dollar in trade. Sechin also warned that Western energy markets are already under strain from underinvestment and falling exploration spending.
By the numbers
- 42%+: Share of global oil output controlled by BRICS nations.
• ~40%: Organic reserve replacement ratio among Western oil majors over the past five years.
• Five years: Period of sustained underinvestment in global oil exploration.
• Multiple countries: Russia, China, and Iran currently under U.S. sanctions.
Why it matters
If sanctions continue to tighten energy supplies while global production investment remains weak, oil markets could face structural shortages—driving higher prices, worsening inflation, and increasing financial strain inside the U.S. economy.
What to watch
- Changes in global oil supply and exploration spending.
• Energy-price inflation in the U.S. and Western economies.
• Growth of non-dollar oil trade among BRICS members.
• Retaliatory trade or tariff actions tied to sanctions.
• Capital flows into real assets and energy commodities.
The bottom line
BRICS-linked energy sanctions may weaken rival economies in the short run, but growing oil-market concentration and underinvestment risk feeding back into higher U.S. inflation, increased volatility, and longer-term economic turbulence.
NEXT WEEK’S KEY EVENTS
Economic Calendar: December 1 – 5, 2025 (ET)
MONDAY, Dec. 1
• 9:45 am — S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)
• 10:00 am — ISM Manufacturing (Nov.)
TUESDAY, Dec. 2
• None scheduled
WEDNESDAY, Dec. 3
• 8:15 am — ADP Employment (Nov.)
• 9:45 am — S&P Final U.S. Services PMI (Nov.)
• 10:00 am — ISM Services (Nov.)
THURSDAY, Dec. 4
• 8:30 am — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 29)
FRIDAY, Dec. 5
• 8:30 am — PCE Index (delayed report) (Sept.)
May be delayed due to prior government shutdown disruptions
IMPACT ON PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS
S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Mon, 9:45 am ET)
• Rising PMI → improving factory momentum, supports yields/dollar; bearish for metals.
• Falling PMI → manufacturing slowdown, growth concerns; bullish for gold/silver.
Subject to delay.
ISM Manufacturing (Mon, 10:00 am ET)
• Expansionary reading (>50) → stronger industrial demand, supports yields; bearish for metals.
• Contractionary reading (<50) → cooling economic activity; bullish for gold/silver.
Subject to delay.
ADP Employment (Wed, 8:15 am ET)
• Strong job gains → labor tightness, supports higher rates; bearish for metals.
• Weak job growth → hiring slowdown, supports rate-cut expectations; bullish for gold/silver.
Subject to delay.
S&P Final U.S. Services PMI (Wed, 9:45 am ET)
• Strong services activity → supports growth outlook and yields; bearish for metals.
• Weak services activity → demand softness and growth risks; bullish for gold/silver.
Subject to delay.
ISM Services (Wed, 10:00 am ET)
• Hot services data → persistent inflation risk, supports dollar/yields; bearish for metals.
• Soft services data → disinflation signal, boosts Fed easing bets; bullish for gold/silver.
Subject to delay.
Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, 8:30 am ET)
• Rising claims → labor-market softening, easing rate pressure; bullish for gold/silver.
• Falling claims → labor resilience, supports higher-for-longer bias; bearish for metals.
Subject to delay.
PCE Index (Fri, 8:30 am ET)
• Hot PCE reading → inflation persistence, strengthens yields/dollar; bearish for metals.
• Soft PCE → easing pressure on Fed, supports rate-cut bets; bullish for gold/silver.
Subject to delay.
