Monday (4.13.26): Gold and silver slipped Monday after U.S.-Iran peace talks broke downโsending oil up and the dollar along for the ride. June gold fell $56 to $4,731, while May silver dropped $2.46 to $74.03. Translation: higher energy prices = stickier inflation = fewer Fed rate cuts = pressure on metals. The takeaway: when inflation heats up and the dollar flexes, gold and silver tend to cool off.
Tuesday (4.14.26): Gold and silver rallied into midday Tuesday as the U.S. dollar slid to a six-week lowโfuel for metals even as risk appetite improved (yes, both can happen). June gold jumped about $63 to $4,831, while May silver surged $3.59 to $79.27. The backdrop: renewed chatter around U.S.-Iran talks easing inflation fears and boosting demand expectations. Meanwhile, March PPI came in cooler than expectedโ0.5% MoM vs. 1.1% forecastโeven with an energy spike tied to the conflict. Core inflation also eased slightly. The market reaction? Shrug. Metals kept climbing, driven more by dollar weakness than inflation data.
Wednesday (4.15.26): Gold slipped while silver edged higher in choppy midday trade Wednesday, after both metals tagged three-week highs overnightโthink profit-taking meets hesitation. June gold fell about $20 to $4,830, while May silver climbed near $80. But hereโs the twist: metals are getting a tailwind from a weakening U.S. dollar, as renewed U.S.-Iran talks unwind some of the greenbackโs war-driven gains. The Bloomberg dollar index is down this month after a March surge, and analysts see more downside aheadโespecially against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc. Even Kenneth Rogoff says the dollar could be ~20% overvalued, hinting at a longer-term slide. The takeaway: short-term chop, long-term setup still favors metals.
Thursday (4.16.26): Gold is inching higher while silver takes a breatherโclassic pause after a run. June gold is up slightly near $4,830, while silver slipped to around $79 as markets cool off and consolidate. Meanwhile, oilโs climbing (~$93.50), the dollarโs firming, and 10-year yields are hovering near 4.3%โa mix thatโs keeping metals in check. The big levels: gold bulls want a break above $5,000 (thatโs the headline grabber), while bears are eyeing a drop toward $4,500; silverโs playing a similar game, with $85 as the upside target and $70 as the floor. Bottom line: metals arenโt making big moves todayโbut the battle lines are clearly drawn.
Friday (4.17.26): Gold and silver ticked slightly higher Friday as volatility cooled and traders bet the Middle East tensions may easeโJune gold near $4,814, silver around $79. Donald Trump says a U.S.-Iran deal looks close (not confirmed by Iran), while oil markets stay shaky and Canada signals progress on a broader U.S. trade dealโnet: less panic, but uncertainty still lingers.
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US dollarโs global share drops to 46%, signaling long-term decline
The big picture
The U.S. dollarโs dominance in global markets is slipping, with its share falling to multi-decade lows as central banks diversify reserves and increase gold holdings.
Driving the news
New data shows the dollar losing ground in both foreign exchange usage and global reserves. At the same time, central banks are accelerating gold purchases and shifting toward alternative currencies.
By the numbers
โข 46% โ current share of global FX and gold reserves
โข -15 points โ decline in dollar share since 2017
โข 57% โ share of global reserves (excluding gold)
โข 1994 โ last time reserves were this low
โข 1990โ1991 โ last time USD fell below 50% of reserves
Why it matters
A declining dollar share signals a gradual shift in global financial power. As central banks diversify away from the dollar, it could weaken its role as the worldโs primary reserve currencyโimpacting trade, capital flows, and U.S. economic influence.
What to watch
โข Continued central bank gold accumulation
โข Shifts into alternative reserve currencies
โข Geopolitical tensions influencing reserve strategy
โข Trends in global debt and confidence in the U.S. economy
โข Whether USD share continues falling below key thresholds
The bottom line
The dollar isnโt collapsingโbut it is losing ground. The trend points to a slower, structural shift in global reserves, with gold and alternative currencies steadily chipping away at its dominance.
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Gold holds above $4,800 as strong labor data caps upside momentum
The big picture
Gold is stabilizing above the $4,800 level, but momentum remains muted as a resilient U.S. labor market reduces urgency for safe-haven demand. Prices are holding firm, yet struggling to break higher.
Driving the news
Better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims data signaled ongoing labor market strength, dampening bullish enthusiasm for gold. While prices rebounded above key support overnight, the macro backdrop is limiting follow-through buying.
By the numbers
โข $4,800 โ key support level reclaimed and holding
โข $4,815.80 โ latest spot gold price
โข 207,000 โ latest weekly jobless claims (below expectations)
โข 213,000 โ consensus forecast
โข 209,750 โ four-week moving average of claims
โข 1.818 million โ continuing jobless claims
Why it matters
A strong labor market reduces recession fears and can delay interest rate cuts, both of which tend to weigh on gold. As a result, even when gold holds key levels, upside momentum may stall without a clear macro catalyst.
What to watch
โข Whether gold can maintain support above $4,800
โข Trends in U.S. labor market data and unemployment claims
โข Federal Reserve policy expectations and rate outlook
โข Real yields and their impact on non-yielding assets like gold
โข Broader risk sentiment and safe-haven demand
The bottom line
Gold is holding steadyโbut not breaking out. Without signs of economic weakness or dovish policy shifts, prices may remain range-bound despite underlying support.
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BRICS surpasses G7 in global GDP share as de-dollarization accelerates
The big picture
The BRICS bloc now accounts for roughly 40% of global GDP (PPP), overtaking the G7โs shrinking share and signaling a structural shift toward a more multipolar global economy.
Driving the news
IMF data confirms BRICSโ rising dominance, fueled by stronger growth, resource control, and expanding trade conducted outside the U.S. dollarโparticularly in energy markets.
By the numbers
โข 40% โ BRICS share of global GDP (PPP)
โข 28โ29% โ G7 share of global GDP
โข 3.7% โ BRICS average growth rate (2026)
โข 1.1% โ G7 average growth rate
โข $1 trillion+ โ BRICS non-dollar trade by end of 2025
โข 72% โ share of global rare earth reserves controlled by BRICS
โข 43% โ share of global oil production
โข 42% โ share of global wheat supply
Why it matters
The widening gap between BRICS and the G7 reflects a deeper economic realignment. As trade increasingly bypasses the dollarโespecially in energy marketsโit challenges the foundations of U.S. financial dominance and accelerates the shift toward alternative currencies.
What to watch
โข Expansion of non-dollar trade in oil and commodities
โข Adoption of yuan and alternative payment systems (e.g., CIPS, CBDCs)
โข Geopolitical tensions impacting global trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz
โข Central bank diversification away from the dollar
โข Continued divergence in growth between BRICS and G7 economies
The bottom line
BRICS isnโt just catching upโitโs pulling ahead. With stronger growth and rising non-dollar trade, the bloc is reshaping global economic power and accelerating the move away from a dollar-dominated system.
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Federal government collects more than double state and local taxes combined
The big picture
Federal tax collections dominate the U.S. system, far exceeding what state and local governments collectโreinforcing the federal governmentโs outsized fiscal role.
Driving the news
New data highlights the scale of federal taxation, with income, payroll, and excise taxes generating significantly more revenue than state and local taxes combined.
By the numbers
โข $5.1 trillion โ total federal tax revenue (2024)
โข $1.47 trillion โ total state tax revenue
โข $1.1 trillion โ total local tax revenue
โข $2.5 trillion โ combined state and local taxes
โข ~3.5x โ federal taxes vs. state taxes ratio
โข 60%+ โ share of total taxes coming from federal level in most states
Why it matters
The imbalance underscores how centralized tax collection has become. Federal dominance affects everything from public spending priorities to economic policy, while limiting the relative influence of state and local governments.
What to watch
โข Trends in federal vs. state/local tax revenue over time
โข Policy debates around decentralization of government programs
โข Federal spending growth and deficit financing
โข Migration trends driven by state and local tax differences
โข Shifts in taxpayer burden across income groups
The bottom line
When it comes to taxation, the federal government is the main player. Its share of total tax revenue continues to dwarf state and local levels, shaping the structureโand power dynamicsโof the U.S. fiscal system.
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Silver rebound gains traction as demand drivers point to next breakout
The big picture
Silver is recovering sharply alongside gold, with multiple demand forcesโindustrial, energy, and investmentโaligning to support a potential new upward wave.
Driving the news
Prices have rebounded from recent lows, supported by rising energy costs, geopolitical uncertainty, and strong demand tied to solar panel production and industrial use.
By the numbers
โข ~$79โ$80 โ current silver price (U.S.)
โข ~$70 โ recent low
โข $89.50 โ silver price in Shanghai (โ13% premium)
โข ~19% โ share of silver demand from solar panels
โข $120 โ recent peak during prior surge
โข $100+ โ near-term bullish target
โข $200 โ long-term bullish projection
Why it matters
Silver sits at the intersection of industrial demand and investment demand. With solar adoption rising and physical supply appearing tightโespecially in Chinaโthe metal could see accelerated price moves if both demand streams surge simultaneously.
What to watch
โข Continued strength in solar panel demand globally
โข Energy prices and their impact on industrial activity
โข Shanghai premium as a signal of physical supply tightness
โข Investment demand returning after prior price spike
โข Geopolitical risks and broader macro instability
The bottom line
Silverโs setup is strengthening again. If industrial demand and investor interest converge, the next major rally could push prices back above $100โwith higher targets possible over time.
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NEXT WEEKโS KEY EVENTS
Economic Calendar: April 20 โ April 24, 2026 (ET)
MONDAY, April 20
โข None scheduled
TUESDAY, April 21
โข 8:30 am โ U.S. Retail Sales (March)
โข 10:00 am โ U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (Feb.)
โข 10:00 am โ Pending Home Sales (March)
WEDNESDAY, April 22
โข None scheduled
THURSDAY, April 23
โข 8:30 am โ Initial Jobless Claims (April 18)
โข 9:45 am โ S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI (April)
โข 9:45 am โ S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI (April)
FRIDAY, April 24
โข 10:00 am โ Consumer Sentiment (Final) (April)
IMPACT ON PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS
U.S. Retail Sales (Tue, 8:30 am ET)
โข Stronger spending โ signals economic resilience; bearish for gold/silver.
โข Weaker spending โ suggests slowing demand; bullish for metals.
Consumer spending is a key driver of economic growth and inflation expectations; high impact.
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (Tue, 10:00 am ET)
โข Rising indicators โ point to future economic strength; mildly bearish for gold/silver.
โข Falling indicators โ signal potential slowdown; mildly bullish for metals.
Forward-looking composite index helps gauge economic direction; moderate impact.
Pending Home Sales (Tue, 10:00 am ET)
โข Stronger housing demand โ reflects economic confidence; mildly bearish for gold/silver.
โข Weaker demand โ signals caution in housing; mildly bullish for metals.
Housing activity is sensitive to interest rates and broader economic conditions; moderate impact.
Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, 8:30 am ET)
โข Rising claims โ signals labor market softening; bullish for metals.
โข Lower claims โ indicates continued labor strength; mildly bearish for gold/silver.
High-frequency labor data closely watched for shifts in economic conditions; moderate impact.
S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI (Thu, 9:45 am ET)
โข Stronger services activity โ signals economic expansion; bearish for gold/silver.
โข Weaker activity โ suggests slowing demand; bullish for metals.
Services sector dominates U.S. economic output; moderate-to-high impact.
S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Thu, 9:45 am ET)
โข Stronger manufacturing โ indicates industrial strength; mildly bearish for gold/silver.
โข Weaker manufacturing โ signals contraction risks; mildly bullish for metals.
Provides early insight into industrial momentum; moderate impact.
Consumer Sentiment (Final) (Fri, 10:00 am ET)
โข Higher sentiment โ reflects consumer confidence; mildly bearish for gold/silver.
โข Lower sentiment โ signals economic concern; mildly bullish for metals.
Sentiment influences spending behavior and economic outlook; moderate impact.
