A Daily Journey Through the Week's Market
Monday - 6.09.25: Gold prices edged slightly higher in quiet Monday trading, while silver surged to another 13-year high. The metals market saw narrow movement amid a lack of major news, though U.S.-China trade talks in London added some optimism after President Trump said they “should go very well.” August gold was last up $3.80 at $3,350.30; July silver rose $0.621 to $36.76.
Tuesday - 6.10.25: Gold and silver prices dipped modestly Tuesday midday on profit-taking and a lack of fresh bullish news, while firmer U.S. stock indexes added mild pressure. Traders are also in wait-and-see mode as U.S.-China trade talks in London continue with no official progress, though reports suggest both sides may be open to concessions. August gold was last down $11.30 at $3,343.30; July silver fell $0.196 to $36.60.
Wednesday - 6.11.25: Gold posted modest gains Wednesday, easing from daily highs after a U.S. inflation report showed no surprises. May CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, matching expectations and signaling no new inflation concerns, while core CPI held steady at 2.8%. The data supports a dovish monetary outlook. August gold was last up $8.30 at $3,352.10; July silver dipped $0.0342 to $36.30.
Thursday - 6.12.25: Gold prices surged Thursday midday on safe-haven demand, driven by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and dovish U.S. inflation data. The U.S. ordered non-essential personnel out of the region amid threats from Iran, nuclear facility concerns, and upcoming Iran-U.S. talks. Meanwhile, a softer-than-expected May PPI, following a tame CPI, boosted hopes for Fed rate cuts—fueling bullish sentiment in precious metals. August gold rose $66.30 to $3,410.10; July silver edged up $0.099 to $36.36.
Friday - 6.13.25: Gold surged to a five-week high Friday, up $41.90 to $3,444.30, on strong safe-haven demand after Israel launched major airstrikes on Iran, killing top generals and nuclear officials in what’s being called the worst escalation in decades. Silver rose modestly, while oil spiked to a five-month high near $74 a barrel amid fears of a broader Middle East conflict disrupting energy supplies. Risk aversion soared, global stocks dropped, and U.S. indexes pointed sharply lower. The dollar index climbed, and the 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.34%. Trump, on Truth Social, warned of further devastation unless Iran seeks a deal.
Americans Still Slow to Embrace Gold, Silver, and Miners Despite Record Highs
Most of the precious metals demand is coming from abroad and central banks, not U.S. investors—yet
The Big Picture
Despite gold’s multi-year rally and silver and platinum breakouts, American investors have yet to rotate meaningfully into precious metals or mining stocks. Most of the buying is happening abroad, particularly by central banks diversifying away from the U.S. dollar amid growing concerns over tariffs, deficits, and global instability.
What’s Happening
Gold has climbed over 25% year-to-date and hit record highs, yet U.S. investor inflows into gold ETFs and mining funds remain muted. Much of the domestic market still overlooks gold’s rise, while sovereign buyers and foreign investors—especially those wary of U.S. trade and fiscal policies—are driving demand. Silver and platinum are also attracting attention as lower-cost alternatives to gold.
By the Numbers
- Gold YTD performance: +26%
• U.S. dollar (DXY): -9% YTD
• Physical gold trust net inflows: $1B+
• Silver trust net inflows: ~$500M
• Gold ETF ownership (U.S.): ~37M people
• Bitcoin ownership (U.S.): ~50M people
Why It Matters
Central banks’ record gold buying reflects a global de-dollarization trend, signaling weakening trust in U.S. monetary dominance. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasuries—once the go-to safe haven—have underperformed during recent instability, making gold, silver, and platinum more attractive as alternative stores of value.
The Bottom Line
U.S. investors have barely begun reallocating to precious metals. With inflation, geopolitical risk, and fiscal uncertainty rising, gold and its peers could see a wave of domestic demand—especially as confidence in traditional safe havens erodes and more investors seek real assets outside the dollar.
Gold Advances on Fed Rate-Cut Bets and Middle East Tensions
Soft inflation data and geopolitical risks fuel gains in bullion
The Big Picture
Gold climbed Thursday as soft U.S. inflation data strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year, while rising tensions in the Middle East added safe-haven appeal. With Treasury yields and the dollar sliding, gold gained as much as 1.3% before trimming some gains.
What’s Happening
May’s producer price index showed inflation remained subdued, reinforcing the idea that tariffs haven’t translated into higher consumer costs. Meanwhile, U.S. jobless claims hit their highest level since late 2021, pointing to a cooling labor market. At the same time, geopolitical concerns intensified after the U.S. pulled staff from its Baghdad embassy in response to Iranian threats. Separately, Trump announced plans to finalize new unilateral tariff rates and confirmed a trade framework with China, keeping current levies intact.
By the Numbers
- Spot gold: +1% to $3,388.33
• YTD gold performance: +29%
• Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index: -0.6%
• Treasury yields: declined
• Producer Price Index (May): remained muted
• Jobless claims: highest since end of 2021
Why It Matters
Lower inflation and rising jobless claims increase pressure on the Fed to cut rates—typically bullish for gold. Meanwhile, geopolitical flare-ups and trade uncertainties are fueling safe-haven demand, driving investors toward precious metals.
The Bottom Line
With soft inflation, rising unemployment claims, and global tensions escalating, gold’s dual appeal—as both a hedge against uncertainty and a beneficiary of potential Fed easing—continues to strengthen.
May CPI Stays Tame—But Tariff-Driven Inflation Storm May Be Brewing
Economists warn Trump’s trade policy could soon reverse recent disinflation trends
The Big Picture
The U.S. consumer price index rose 2.4% year-over-year in May, a slight uptick from April’s 2.3%, signaling inflation is largely under control—for now. While core monthly inflation stayed soft at 0.1%, economists caution that President Trump’s aggressive tariff policy could soon reignite price pressures across the economy.
What’s Happening
May’s inflation was shaped by falling gas and airfare prices, offset somewhat by rising grocery costs. Economists described the current trend as the “calm before the storm,” noting that most of the disinflation stems from favorable base effects and supply chain recovery. However, tariffs imposed on countries like China, Mexico, and Canada—plus sector-specific duties—are expected to raise prices in the coming months as inventories of pre-tariff goods run out.
By the Numbers
- CPI YoY: +2.4% (May) vs. +2.3% (April)
• Monthly CPI: +0.1% (May)
• Gasoline prices: -3% MoM, -12% YoY
• Food at home: +0.3% MoM
• Airfare: -3% MoM, -7% YoY
• Major appliances: +4.3% MoM
• Toy prices: +2.2% MoM
• Estimated household tariff cost in 2025: +$2,500
• Effective tariff rate: ~6% (April 2025) vs. 2% (end of 2024)
Why It Matters
Though inflation appears tamed for now, economists warn that Trump’s sweeping tariffs could stall or reverse disinflation. The Federal Reserve’s path to meeting its 2% target could be disrupted if consumer prices jump later this year, pressuring households and complicating monetary policy decisions.
The Bottom Line
May's CPI shows inflation nearing the Fed’s target, but the clock is ticking. As tariffs begin to bite and inventories thin, the risk of a renewed inflation spike grows—potentially upending the current calm and reshaping the economic outlook for late 2025.
Trump’s Tariff Agenda Sparks Global Growth Concerns, Says World Bank
Uneven trade access with the U.S. now risks slowing the global economy
The Big Picture
President Trump’s aggressive trade policies are reshaping global dynamics, with the World Bank acknowledging long-standing imbalances in market access—where U.S. companies face steeper trade barriers abroad. But while the diagnosis aligns with Trump’s rhetoric, the World Bank warns that the remedy—massive new tariffs—is likely to cause the slowest year of global growth in nearly two decades outside of recession.
What’s Happening
In a new report, the World Bank agrees that U.S. companies have faced disproportionate tariffs, especially in developing nations. However, it says Trump’s retaliatory tariffs risk dragging global growth down to 2.3% in 2025, a sharp downgrade from earlier forecasts. The U.S. growth outlook has also been slashed, with ripple effects expected to hit low-income nations tied to U.S., China, and European markets. The Bank notes that halving tariffs in future trade deals could boost global growth by 0.4 percentage points over the next two years.
By the Numbers
- Global growth forecast (2025): 2.3%
• Downgrade from previous forecast: -0.4 percentage points
• U.S. growth forecast (2025): 1.4% (down nearly 1 point)
• Growth improvement if tariffs are halved: +0.4 points over 2 years
• Tariff differentials: Increase as income level of trading partner decreases
Why It Matters
The report signals a turning point: while the U.S. had long tolerated uneven trade terms in favor of global stability, that strategy is now ending. If trade barriers remain high or worsen, emerging markets and global supply chains could see prolonged strain, exacerbating inequality and slowing development.
The Bottom Line
The World Bank agrees with Trump’s core complaint but warns his solution could backfire. Without global tariff reform—especially in developing nations—Trump’s trade war may end up slowing growth worldwide, including at home.
Next Week’s Key Events
Economic Calendar: June 16 – June 20, 2025
Monday, June 16
- 8:30 AM ET – Empire State Manufacturing Survey (June)
A regional gauge of manufacturing activity; a weak reading may suggest slowing industrial momentum.
Tuesday, June 17
- 8:30 AM ET – U.S. Retail Sales (May)
Tracks consumer spending; a decline could signal economic softness, while a gain suggests resilience. - 8:30 AM ET – Import Price Index (May)
Measures inflation in imported goods; can influence inflation expectations and monetary policy outlook. - 9:15 AM ET – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (May)
Shows output levels and factory usage; weaker data could raise concerns about slowing growth.
Wednesday, June 18
- 8:30 AM ET – Housing Starts and Permits (May)
Key indicators of housing market health and construction activity. - 8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending June 14)
Monitors weekly layoffs; early signal of labor market direction. - 2:00 PM ET – FOMC Interest Rate Decision
Potential market-moving event; Fed policy shifts have strong influence on gold and silver.
Thursday, June 19
- Juneteenth Holiday – No major economic releases scheduled
Friday, June 20
- 8:30 AM ET – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (June)
Another regional factory activity measure; useful for gauging business sentiment.
IMPACT ON PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Monday, June 16):
This regional manufacturing index gives an early look at factory activity in New York. A weaker-than-expected reading could signal slowing economic momentum, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. Conversely, stronger data may reduce recession concerns and support risk assets, dampening interest in metals.
U.S. Retail Sales (Tuesday, June 17):
Retail sales reflect consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Weak sales suggest economic softness and may reduce expectations for future rate hikes, which is bullish for gold and silver. Strong sales data, on the other hand, could raise the likelihood of a hawkish Fed response, weighing on precious metals due to higher real interest rates.
Import Price Index (Tuesday, June 17):
This index tracks changes in the prices of imported goods. A decline in import prices may point to easing inflation, which could reduce pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates—positive for gold and silver. Rising import prices might revive inflation concerns, but could also prompt more aggressive rate hikes, potentially offsetting any bullish impact on metals.
Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Tuesday, June 17):
These indicators show the output of factories, utilities, and mines, and how much of their potential capacity is being used. Weak numbers may indicate a slowdown in economic activity, supporting gold as a hedge against stagnation or recession. Strong production levels, particularly if paired with high capacity use, can support the dollar and hurt metals by reinforcing growth expectations.
Housing Starts and Building Permits (Wednesday, June 18):
Housing data offers insight into construction trends and consumer confidence. Weak numbers suggest a cooling economy and potential deflationary pressures—bullish for metals. A strong housing report could signal economic resilience, which might curb safe-haven demand for gold and silver.
Initial Jobless Claims (Wednesday, June 18):
A rise in weekly unemployment claims typically points to labor market weakness, increasing the appeal of gold as a defensive asset. Lower-than-expected claims reinforce a strong labor market, potentially limiting gains in gold and silver by supporting a higher-for-longer interest rate outlook.
FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday, June 18):
This is the most pivotal event of the week. If the Fed signals a pause or hints at rate cuts due to economic headwinds, it would likely spark a rally in gold and silver as real yields decline. However, a surprise hike or hawkish tone (e.g., continued concern about inflation) could pressure metals by boosting the U.S. dollar and bond yields.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Friday, June 20):
This survey tracks business conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region. Like the Empire State index, a weak result could suggest broader manufacturing struggles and slower economic growth—favorable for precious metals. A strong reading may lessen recession worries and dampen safe-haven flows into gold and silver.
